May 042013

6A 06-13 (1 Min)  4_3_2013

4/3/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2030 EDT)
Forecast:  0.3%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
Started @ 1.0403
1st Peak @ 1.0436 – 2031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0413 – 2204 (94 min)
23 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a healthy upward previous report revision of 0.3%.  This caused a 33 tick long spike in 1 min that crossed the No SMAs and the PP/R1 Pivots.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0411 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 20 ticks with ease as the :01 bar was near its peak above the R1 Pivot.   This was such a strong report that we saw higher than normal slippage and a change in the trading range of the market.  Hence the reversal was smaller than the spike and painstakingly slow to develop.  It took over 90 min to reclaim 23 ticks as it crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then eclipsed the PP Pivot, but 15 ticks were surrendered by the :03 bar.