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2/6/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2330 EDT)
Forecast: 4.00%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0656
1st Peak @ 1.0763 – 1734 (4 min)
107 ticks
Reverse to 1.0723 – 1745 (15 min)
40 ticks
Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged as two cuts late last year help the economy weather Europe’s debt crisis. Most economists had forecast a rate cut. This caused a large spike, followed by a small reversal since a rate cut had already been priced into the short term market. If using JOBB, you would have filled long. Keep an eye on the Range. There is more volume than usual, and the spike is larger. Still with the seesawing / ratcheting, the trend was strongly upward. The peak was an instantaneous spike of 12 ticks, then it hovered around 1.0734 (15 ticks off the peak) for about 15 sec. I would close out there. It did continue up for a 2nd peak on the 1734 candle, but this is not expected after 93 ticks on the first candle.