-100311.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/3/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.14B
Actual:3.10B
Previous Revision: -0.01B to 1.82B
Spike / REtrace
Started @ 0.9318
1st Peak @ 0.9333 – 1431 (1 min)
15 ticks
Reversal to 0.9288 – 1550 (20 min)
45 ticks
Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. Report broke at the same time as Monthly BLDG Approval which had a positive result, but does not influence the market much. I would not trade this report with the BLDG Approval release at the same time, and the tail on the 1431 candle serves as a warning. I would keep an eye on it though once the report results are known to possibly play the reversal. In this case the double top at 0.9333, the crossing of the 50 and 100 SMAs by the 1431 candle, the downslope of the large SMAs, and the 200 SMA above make a great entry point for a short. As it fell 45 ticks in the next few min, I would get out after the big red candle at 1439 at about 0.9294.