Jan 072013

6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.07.13

1/7/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.21B
Actual: -2.64B
Previous Revision: -0.35B to -2.44B
DULL REACTION then DOWnward fan
Started @ 1.0460
1st Peak @ 1.0452 – 1431 (1 min)
8 ticks

Final Peal @ 1.0423 – 1751 (201 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report moderately disappointed along with a sizable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 8 tick initial spike on the :31 bar that crossed the 100 SMA then hit the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA and could go no lower. After the initial short spike, it stepped lower in a slow, but deliberate manner to manage 37 total ticks in nearly 3.5 hrs. It is not clear if the entire short move was due to the sentiment of the report as it usually has mild influence. If so, the reaction pattern may be shifting with this report. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 1.0455, with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have only been able to get 1-2 ticks unless you were patient and stayed in longer than 8 min. As this was a dull reaction, I moved my stop loss down to 1 tick above the 100 (1 tick loss) and closed out with 1 tick of profit. There are 2 reversals during the downward move that reclaimed 10-11 ticks, but nothing significant after the bottom was reached.