Jan 162013

6A 03 13 (1-Min) 01.16.13

1/16/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 2.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -5.5K
Previous Revision: +3.2K to 17.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
Started @ 1.0518
1st Peak @ 1.0487 – 1931 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.0509 – 2023 (53 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.4%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a healthy short spike of 31 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0509 with 4 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it fall and bounce around between break even and 15 ticks of profit for about 5 sec. Then it settled down and headed lower as the :31 bar was expiring. I put my buy limit order at 1.0494, the low of the bar after the initial activity, and filled with 15 ticks. The spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs along with the PP and S1 Pivots, then bottomed out 3 ticks above the S2 Pivot as it extended the LOD by 20 ticks. Then it broke the trend of the last several months and did not attempt a 2nd peak. The reversal achieved 22 ticks in about 50 min, but garnered 17 ticks in 7 min, then struggling upward in the next several minutes through several SMAs and the S1 Pivot. As volume was drying up, it headed lower again after reaching the 100 SMA.