2/4/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 3.00%
Actual: 3.00%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0413
1st Peak @ 1.0435 – 2231 (1 min)
22 ticks
Reversal to 1.0381 – 2234 (4 min)
54 ticks
Extended Reversal to 1.0360 – 2253 (23 min)
75 ticks
Notes: With continued economic growth softening in Australia and abroad, but downside risks abating in the near term as the US avoided the fiscal cliff and Europe is less dire, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged. This caused a nearly indecisive scenario as the market rallied for 22 ticks and remained positive for 29 sec, then fell 54 ticks in the next 3.5 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.0425 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had a brief opportunity to retain a small amount of profit up until 10 sec into the bar. Then you would have seen it hover between 4 and 12 ticks in the red. Look to close out here or move your stop loss up to about 10 ticks in the red. After the initial reversal, it rallied a bit to close the gap to the 13 SMA, then fell again for another 21 ticks through the S2 Pivot. Then it traded sideways within a narrow lower range centered on the S2 Pivot.