May 052013

6A 03-13 (1 Min)  3_13_20136A 03-13 (2 Range)  3_13_2013

3/13/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 9.5K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 71.5K
Previous Revision: +2.7K to 13.1K
Rate Forecast:  5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
Started @ 1.0305
1st Peak @ 1.0366 –  2032 (2 min)
61 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0381 – 2102 (32 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 1.0362 – 2146 (76 min)
19 ticks

Notes:  Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate improving by 0.1%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a long spike of 61 ticks.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0320 with 8 ticks of slippage.  After the fill you would have seen it blast off and cross the R1/R2 Pivots with ease.  As these reports will finish near the top of the bar and often eke out a few more ticks on the :32 bars, I exited at 1.0366 at the level of the top of the :31 bar for 44 ticks.  After a minor drawback, it achieved 15 ticks more on a 2nd peak 30 min later, using the first encounter with the 13/20 SMAs as a springboard to go long.  Then due to a very strong report, it only reversed for 19 ticks in 45 min as it briefly traded below the 50 SMA.