3/4/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 3.00%
Actual: 3.00%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0205
1st Peak @ 1.0184 – 2231 (1 min)
21 ticks
Reversal to 1.0219 – 2234 (4 min)
35 ticks
Extended Reversal to 1.0233 – 2252 (22 min)
49 ticks
Notes: With continued economic growth forecasts being below average, but downside risks abating in the near term, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged. This caused a quick short spike of 22 ticks to just above the LOD, then a reversal on the following bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0197 with no slippage, then had a brief opportunity to capture 5-10 ticks between the 100/50 SMAs and the LOD. Do not linger in your decision to exit on this trade more than the :31 bar as sharp reversals are common. We saw a 35 ticks reversal in the next 3 min, then an extended reversal of 14 more ticks as it ratcheted higher in the next 20 min. After that it retreated to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways.