Feb 082014

6A 03-14 (1 Min)  1_15_2014 6A 03-14 (1 Range)  1_15_2014

1/15/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -22.6K
Previous Revision: -5.6K to 15.4K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 0.8860
1st Peak @ 0.8797 – 1931 (1 min)
63 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8762 – 2009 (39 min)
98 ticks

Reversal to 0.8783 – 2015 (45 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by nearly 33K while the unemployment rate remain unchanged, with a sizeable downward revision to the previous report caused a short (initially choppy) but eventually stable and sustainable spike of 63 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar for 63 ticks. It started below the major SMAs and crossed the S3 Mid Pivot initially, then pulled back to the S1 Pivot, before falling and settling down near the S3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.8840 with 12 ticks of slippage, then the 15 tick stop would have gotten nicked on the retracement 1 sec later. Due to the slippage and retracement, we will recommend limit orders next time and leave the order open after missed so that it can be filled on the retracement. After the :31 bar, the bearish sentiment continued to be overwhelming as we only saw a 14 tick reversal that was short lived, before it turned into a downward fan that eventually reached the area of the S4 Pivot for another 35 ticks in the next 38 min. Then it retreated 21 ticks in the next 6 min to the S4 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways between the S4 Mid Pivot and LOD for several hours.