-043012.jpg "Click to enlarge")
4/30/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.00%
Actual: 3.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (INDECISIVE initially)
Started @ 1.0375
1st Candle: Peak @ 1.0306 / Retrace to 1.0389 / Peak @ 1.0274 / Settle @ 1.0307 – 1831 (1 min)
-69 ticks / 14 ticks / – 101 ticks / -68 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0268 – 1921 (51 min)
107 ticks
Reverse to 1.0290 – 2000 (90 min)
22 ticks
Notes: With the disappointing PPI and CPI #s from the previous week, most investors were anticipating a 25 BP rate cut (or small chance of no change). Instead the RBA surprised everyone and cut rates by 50 BP. Since the market had priced in a 25 BP rate cut in the hours prior to the report, it spiked long prematurely due to short covering. Then the 50 BP cut caused immediate volatility and an eventually dove to the downside for 101 ticks. Unfortunately with JOBB, the oscillations in the early seconds would have stopped you out. The up spike crossed many Pivots to peak just above the R2 Pivot, and the downspike crossed all major SMAs near the origin, penetrated the S3 Pivot to bottom out well below it. After the bottom of 1.0274 was hit, it retraced back to about 1.0317 at the S2 Pivot, then headed down to a 2nd Peak at 1.0268 50 minutes later. The reversal was relatively small at 22 ticks in nearly 40 minutes after the 2nd peak.