May 072012

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.07.12

5/7/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: -1.38B
Previous Revision:-0.27B to -0.75B
Started @ 1.0148
1st Peak @ 1.0133 – 1531 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0125 – 1541 (11 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0139 – 1615 (45 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast, with a negative revision to the previous report. This caused a small spike downward of 15 ticks with a pullback. It then reclaimed the level of the initial spike on the :35 bar before falling to a 2nd peak of 23 ticks on the :41 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0142 with minimal slippage. You could get out safely on the initial spike with about 5 ticks, or wait it out for more in the following 10 minutes as this report is prone to peaking after the :01 candle and yielding a 2nd peak. If you stayed in, look for a 2nd peak of about 8 ticks lower than the initial spike which is routine. The reversal yielded 14 ticks to nick the S1 Pivot.