5/14/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
INDECISIVE then SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9931
1st Peak @ 0.9937 – 1531 (1 min) / Reverse to 0.9910 – 1532 (2 min)
6 ticks / -21 ticks
Reverse to 0.9937 – 1608 (38 min)
Notes: Initial indecisive reaction mirrored the trend of the market reaction to the Cash rate report 2 weeks prior. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the 6 tick spike, before it fell for 21 ticks. With no statistics this can be tricky to evaluate, but since it crossed all 3 SMAs on the spike upwards then retreated, it is likely not heading upward. I would move the stop up to the 13 SMA at 0.9928 or 0.9929 because if it cannot find support there, it will fall further. With a long fill at 0.9936, you are looking at loss of 8 ticks. The nadir of the spike was achieved on the :32 bar with 21 ticks, then the reversal took over 30 min to achieve a double top at 0.9937.