May 092013

6A 06-13 (1 Min)  4_15_2013

4/14/2013 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EST)
Forecast:  8.0%
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 1.0435 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 1.0410 – 2202 (3 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0367 – 2331 (92 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 1.0390 – 0018 (139 min)
23 ticks

Notes:  Strongly negative report disappointed the traders.  The market had initiated a dramatic selloff about 30 min before the report, dropping 35 ticks prior to news.  Then there was a minor long retracement before the news hit.   This caused a short spike of 25 ticks that peaked on the :02 bar, eclipsing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it continued into a downward fan, eventually touching the S3 Mid Pivot about 90 min later for a total of 68 ticks.  With JOBB, do to the incorrect activation time of xx:59:00 you would have filled long at 1.0435 with no slippage, then been stopped with a 5 tick loss.  We now recognize that the news breaks at xx:59:20, so an activation at xx:59:17 would have filled short at 1.0430 with no slippage.  You could have exited with 13-20 ticks on the :01-:02 bars. As this is a quarterly report and largely disappointing, it kept a bearish market intact for about 90 min.  The final reversal reclaimed 23 ticks about 45 min after the final peak.