4/1/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2330 EDT)
Started @ 1.0402
1st Peak @ 1.0420 – 2331 (1 min)
Reversal to 1.0390 – 2331 (1 min)
Double Top @ 1.0420 – 2341/2349 (11/19 min)
Reversal to 1.0395 – 0042 (72 min)
Notes: With continued economic growth forecasts being below average, but downside risks abating and stabilizing in the near term, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged at 3.00%. This caused an indecisive scenario as the market rallied for 18 ticks, then fell 30 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.0410 with 1 tick of slippage, and then the reversal would have quickly taken you below Breakeven after only 6 sec. You could either try to exit before it hit the stop loss for about 6-12 ticks loss, or it would have hit the 15 tick stop at about 31 sec into the bar. After the indecisive reversal bottomed out, it climbed to double top at 1.0420 again 10 min later, then it reversed for 25 ticks in the next hour. Due to the overall upward trend, it would be safe to buy the dip when it eclipsed the 100 SMA, with a stop below the R2 Pivot, then sell inside of the previous top at about 1.0418.