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7/2/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0203
1st Peak @ 1.0183 – 1832 (2 min)
20 ticks
Reverse to 1.0205 – 1833 (3 min)
22 ticks
Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged after a sum of 75 BP rate cuts in the last two months citing better than expected hiring and the strength of the AUSSIE $ in the last 8 months to contain inflation. This matched traders’ expectations, so very little fireworks were seen on this report in comparison to the previous 2-3 reports. After the announcement was made, no move was made until 35 sec into the :31 bar. With JOBB, that would be cause to cancel the order. Had you stayed in and used a 7 tick buffer, you would have likely seen a short fill at 1.0195, just above the 200 SMA. I would move the stop loss to 3 ticks above the 200 SMA at 1.0197 and look for a handful of ticks. The spike fought through all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot near the origin. The reversal reclaimed all of the spike yield in 2 bars, then the market fell again but could not penetrate the 1.0183 area until about 4 hrs later.