Aug 082012

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 08.08.12

8/8/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 14.0K
Previous Revision: -1.3K to -28.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
Started @ 1.0530
1st Peak @ 1.0558 – 1531 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0538 – 1532 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0566 – 1601 (31 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0550 – 1617 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created and the unemployment rate with a small downward revision to the previous report caused a moderate long spike of 28 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0544 with 5-6 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen a quick pop to 1.0558 in 3 sec, a fall to 1.0535 1 sec later, then a rebound and hover between 1.0544 and 1.0548. Close out there with a handful of ticks. Without a major delta from the forecast, the smaller reaction is normal. All of the major SMAs were already below the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the R1 Pivot on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the R2 Pivot. The reversal was only able to rebound for 16 ticks in 47 min, but the reversal between the peaks was slightly stronger at 20 ticks. For 2 hrs after the reversal, it traded sideways with low volume oscillating around the 50 SMA