Sep 032012

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 09.03.12

9/3/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
Started @ 1.0223
1st Peak @ 1.0243 – 1832 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0261 – 1851 (21 min)
38 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0273 – 1944 (74 min)
50 ticks

Reverse to 1.0248 – 2127 (177 min)
25 ticks

Notes: With economic growth softening but still positive in the US, Europe, and China, the RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged. This matched most traders’ expectations and was the more likely outcome instead of another rate cut. With the market trading mostly sideways before the news, it was prime to react bullishly to the outcome. The market spiked long 18 ticks in 2 min, then chopped around a bit before a reaching a 2nd of peak of 36 ticks at 21 min after the release. Then it achieved another 12 ticks for 48 total at 74 min after the report broke. With JOBB you would have filled with minimal slippage at 1.0232. Then with patience, close out with a handful of ticks on the :32 bar. Since it only spiked for 8 ticks on the :31 bar, this is not really an HFT, but a tamer initial spike that will pan out slowly and deliberately. Decisive and small is better than choppy and chaotic. After the 2nd peak at 21 min, the volume dried up considerably as is took nearly an hour to achieve 12 more ticks. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs at the origin, used the S1 Pivot as support and crossed the PP Pivot on its ascent. The 2nd peak eclipsed the R1 Pivot, and the Final Peak was able to punch through the R2 Pivot. The reversal fell for 25 ticks finding support just below the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot.