Dec 312012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 01.16.12

1/16/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2100 EST)
Forecast: 8.7%
Actual: 8.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 1.0005 (1559)
1st Peak @ 1.0021 – 1601 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.0003 – 1621 (22 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Results released 1 min early, so spike moved at 15:59:00. Moderately positive report impressed the traders. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot near the origin. The market had been trending higher prior to the report, but ran into resistance at the R2 Pivot. This made the rally unsustainable as the HOD was extended. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0010 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 7-8 ticks in the middle of the :01 bar before it reversed and fell. After the peak, the reversal reclaimed 18 ticks in 20 min, then it rallied for a double top 41 min after the report. The stepping rally continued for hours after the report, but likely due to other factors.