Dec 042012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.04.12

12/4/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: none
Started @ 1.0467
1st Peak@ 1.0459 – 1431 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0469 – 1435 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0456 – 1505 (35 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.0469 – 1641 (131 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative with no previous revision. This caused a relatively small and fleeting short spike of 8 ticks that promptly retreated back to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0462 with no slippage. In this case you would have been about 3 ticks in the red at the best possible opportunity to close out on the :31 bar, or 7 ticks at the worst. With all three major SMAs acting as support and the PP Pivot sitting at the origin, it was restrained from moving too far short, but should test it again. I elected to stay in and ride it out for the long term due to the gravity of the negative report panning out over time. I set my exit at 1.0457, just above the S1 Pivot looking to get 5 ticks. It took 35 min, but it filled and did not go any lower. The reversal then yielded 13 ticks in the next 95 min.