Oct 232012

6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

10/23/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 1.0018
1st Peak @ 1.0079 – 0302 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1.0060 – 0304 (4 min)
19 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0088 – 0335 (35 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 1.0060 – 0434 (94 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and cited gradual growth in the US, recession in Europe, and slowing growth in China. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but the bulls showed up in force causing an extensive rally for 61 ticks that peaked at the beginning of the :01 bar. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin then several Pivots from the S1 to the R1. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 2 ticks of slippage at 1.0027, then seen it blast off and hover between 1.0055 and 1.0070. I would place a sell limit at the top of that range or even above as it is testing the R1 Pivot around 1.0072 for 45 ticks of profit. The bar expired at 1.0075 and hit its peak at 1.0079 early on the :02 bar. After a small reversal to just below the R1 Pivot, it continued higher for a 2nd Peak for 9 more ticks. Then the reversal retreated to the same level as the earlier reversal 90 min later.