Jan 102013

6E 03 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

1/10/2013 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Started @ 1.3101
1st Peak @ 1.3122 – 0746 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.3112 – 0750 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3130 – 0808 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.3106 – 0834 (49 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. There continues to be a wait-and -see approach as the ECB bond buying program works its way through the economy. The optimism was enough to cause a rally. The 6E initially spiked long for 21 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and R2 Pivot and peaking as it extended the HOD 4 ticks. After a quick and small reversal of 10 ticks in 5 min, it eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 23 min. Then it traded sideways for several minutes until the gravity of the press conference commentary caused a minor reversal back to the R2 Pivot initially, then a large rally lasting several hours. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3109 with 1 tick of slippage, and given you an opportunity to achieve at least 10 ticks toward the end of the bar.