Aug 222012

6E 09 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

8/22/2012 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (2130 HI time / 0330 EDT)
Forecast: 43.5
Actual: 45.1
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 43.0
Started @ 1.2567 (2128)
1st Peak @ 1.2574 – 2129 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2561 – 2129 (1 min)
13 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.2538 – 2223 (55 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2128. The reading came in 1.6 points over the forecast to impress. This caused a dull reaction of a 7 tick long spike on 1 bar that eclipsed the R1 Pivot and could not sustain the rise with the HOD looming 2 ticks higher. After hovering for about 7 sec, it began a slow but deliberate retreat of about 1 tick every 5 sec for a 13 tick reversal. Oddly, the strong French PMI reading caused a bullish rally in the last 30 min that apparently exhausted the bulls even after positive news. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2571 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at about break even as it could not go higher than the R1 Pivot and the HOD was another barrier of resistance. Even if you missed the initial exit, it came back up to the R1 Pivot 9 min later and tested it several times. After it could not penetrate the R1 Pivot, it fell for 36 ticks in the following 45 min, crossing each of the major SMAs. Then it traded sideways just below the 200 SMA.