Sep 062012

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

9/6/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Started @ 1.2621
1st Peak @ 1.2663 – 0147 (2 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.2630 – 0216 (31 min)
33 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied strongly for 42 ticks, peaking on the :47 bar on the assurance that Mario Draghi would act this time. So the market rallied, then trading sideways for 30 min and reversed for 33 ticks. When the press conference began at 0230, the market was initially choppy as Draghis comments created confusion, then the market settled into a stepped decline. The ECB buy bonds in an attempt to hold together the single currency until the politicians unite and agree upon steps toward a closer political union. This mixed bag caused the tame selloff on the back end. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.2632 then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2654 as it hovered near the top of the bar. You could also set your sell limit at the R2 Pivot since it is a convenient and close target.