Oct 042012

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

10/4/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0145 HI time / 0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Started @ 1.2964
1st Peak @ 1.2977 – 0147 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2958 – 0150 (5 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. The 6E initially rallied for 13 ticks in 2 bars, peaking on the :47 bar as there was no cut, but the ECB basically kept the status quo. So the market rallied, then reversed for 19 ticks on the :50 bar, before chopping sideways up to the press conference . When the press conference began at 0230, the market was choppy but stable until the :34 bar jumped for 25 ticks as Draghis comments excited the bulls. Then it was quite volatile for the next 45 min with long wicks and tails as it swung up and down. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.2970 then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.2975 with 5 ticks on the :47 bar.