Dec 062012

6E 12 12 (1 Min) 12.06.12

12/6/2012 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0245 HI time / 0745 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Started @ 1.3060
1st Peak @ 1.3070 – 0246 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3086 – 0303 (18 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3027 – 0356 (71 min)
59 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.2952 – 0727 (282 min)
134 ticks

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.75% in line with most economists expectations in the face of a possible but highly unlikely rate cut to 0.50%. Now it is expected that the ECB may refrain from cutting rates any further after its pledge to buy government bonds lowered borrowing costs and boosted confidence that the Euro can emerge from recession next year. The initially spiked long for 10 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot and peaking at the 100 SMA. After 18 min, it was able to fight through the 100 and 200 SMAs, then the PP Pivot for another 16 ticks. Then it traded sideways for several minutes until the gravity of the press conference commentary caused a selloff. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at 1.3067 with no slippage, but only given you a short opportunity to eke out a few ticks unless you were patient and waited on the 2nd Peak. If you had waited, you would only have been 2 ticks n the red briefly on the :47 bar. Mario Draghi gave a disappointing outlook, pledging more bond buying, prompting the bears to jump in. This caused a long term selloff, yielding 59 ticks quickly, then another 75 ticks in the following 3 hrs.