-040312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
4/3/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: 1.12B
Actual:-0.48B
Previous Revision:-0.30B to -0.97B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0226
1st Peak @ 1.0195 – 1534 (4 min)
31 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0187 – 1542 (12 min)
39 ticks (3x bottom)
Reversal to 1.0198 – 1551 (38 min)
11 ticks
Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with a strongly negative revision to the previous report. This caused a decent spike downward of 31 ticks with a small pullback, then a 2nd peak of 39 ticks 8 minutes later. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0210 with slippage. You could get out safely after hovering at 1.0203, but this report is prone to peaking after the :01 candle and yielding a 2nd peak. If you stayed in, the triple bottom at the 2nd peak is a good indication that the trend is about to reverse along with the inability to penetrate the S1 line support, so exit there. The reversal was small and the volume noticeably dropped after :46.