Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 6.10.2016

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 052016

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 6_10_2016

6/10/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 427.25
1st Peak @ 437.00 – 1200:28 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 430.50 – 1200:37 (1 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 433.75 – 1203 (3 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 424.25 – 1207 (7 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 431.25 – 1209 (9 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 420.00 – 1223 (23 min)
45 ticks

Expected Fill: 430.00 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 436.75 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 435.00 (just above the R3 Pivot), 436.75 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot), 438.75 (just above the R4 Pivot)

Notes: Beautiful long spike that was stepped up and hovered before reversing strongly after 30 sec. Be sure to take precautions upon the hovering below the R4 Mid Pivot.

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 5.10.2016

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 052016

ZC 07-16 (1 Min) 5_10_2016

5/10/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 368.75
1st Peak @ 381.50 – 1200:45 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 378.25 – 1201:20 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.75 – 1202:29 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 376.25 – 1208 (8 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: 371.00 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 381.25 – 41 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 375.50 (just above the R1 Pivot) and 379.00 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Beautiful long spike that was stepped up slowly and was stable to allow up to 40+ ticks.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.26.2016

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_26_2016 6A 06-16 (1 Range) 4_26_2016

4/26/2016 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.2%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.7745
1st Peak@ 0.7682 – 2130:39 (1 min)
63 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7634 – 2202 (32 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 0.7647 – 2209 (39 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7729 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7683 – 46 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7703 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7686 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Very disappointing report caused a large short reaction. The limit order settings would have worked nicely to provide a fill after slipped on a retracement. With the strong deviation of 0.5%, nice trend trade opportunity on the 2nd peak.

6A 09-16 (1 Min) 7.3.2016

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 09-16 (1 Min) 7_3_2016

7/3/2015 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.6%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 3.3%
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7460
1st Bar Span
0.7458 to 0.7461 – +1/-2 ticks – 2131

Notes: Cancel after 10 sec with no fill.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5.30.2016

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5_30_2016

5/30/2016 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -3.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: -0.8% to 2.9%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.7183
1st Peak @ 0.7206 – 2130:23 (1 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7236 – 2212 (42 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 7231 – 2230 (60 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7187 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.7205 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7197 (just above the HOD and R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong reaction, but not expected. The first peak matched the largest previous reaction we saw. Then it turned into an upward fan using the 13/20 SMAs as support to continue climbing for 42 min.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5.2.2016

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jul 042016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 5_2_2016

5/2/2016 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 2.9%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7658
1st Peak @ 0.7666 – 2130:05 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7658 – 2130:34 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 0.7663 – 2132 (2 min)
5 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7661 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7665 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7669 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Quick reversal, but it pulled back to hover around the R1 Pivot for a while to offer 2 ticks on a later exit.

CL 06-16 (1 Min) 4.20.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 172016

CL 06-16 (1 Min) 4_20_2016

4/20/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.40M
Actual: 2.08M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.22M
Actual: -0.11M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.30M
Actual: -3.55M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 41.55
1st Peak @ 41.88 – 1030:34 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 41.67 – 1030:59 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 42.17 – 1033 (3 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 41.82 – 1039 (9 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 44.07 – 1308 (158 min)
252 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.65 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 41.87 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.90 (35 ticks) and 42.16 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Big draw on heating oil while the crude and gas figures were narrowly offsetting. This caused a racheting long move for 33 ticks then another 29 ticks in the next 2 min. A no slippage fill offered up to 22 ticks early, or about 50 with patience. It settled into a huge long trend after conquering the PP Pivot that continued for 2.5 hrs.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.15.2016

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

May 172016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4_15_2016

4/15/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 91.9
Actual: 89.7
Previous Revision: +1.0 to 91.0
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0091910
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.0091990 – 1000:12 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.0091950 – 1000:39 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.0092015 – 1000:55 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.0091975 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.0092210 – 1021 (21 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.0092060 – 1037 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.0091880 (No Pivot / SMA near) / 0.0091830 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.0091945 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.0091985 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – 0.0091945 and 0.0091985 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.0091950 – 6 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.0091950 (just above the 200 SMA) and 0.0091920 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled in a staggered manner as it stepped higher in 12 sec. Then you would have had a 10 sec window to exit with 2-6 total ticks after 30 sec. If you did not exit there, it would have gone against you then come back to hover about 4-6 ticks in the red. Then it claimed a 2nd peak after 20 min to the R2 Pivot followed by a reversal to the 50 SMA.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162016

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.85M
Actual: 6.63M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: 0.51M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 41.66
1st Peak @ 41.87 – 1030:00 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 41.51 – 1030:17 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 42.00 – 1031:11 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 41.26 – 1034 (4 min)
74 ticks

Final Peak @ 42.42 – 1102 (32 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 41.74 – 1130 (60 min)
68 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.79 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.17 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.92 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Conflicting report caused an unstable reaction. You would have filled long on the initial spike, then stopped 4 sec later at 41.64. It cycled again before climbing for a 2nd peak after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot, then reversed to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4.6.2016

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162016

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4_6_2016

4/6/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.15M
Actual: -4.94M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.97M
Actual: 1.44M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.33M
Actual: 1.80M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 36.82
1st Peak @ 37.18 – 1030:12 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 36.63 – 1033 (3 min)
55 ticks

2nd Peak @ 37.46 – 1045 (15 min)
64 ticks

Final Peak @ 37.81 – 1146 (76 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 37.55 – 1215 (105 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 36.95 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.17 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 37.08 (just above the R3 Pivot) and 37.16 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Big draw on oil offset by a moderate gain on the products. This caused a long spike of 36 ticks to the HOD, then a reversal 1 min later, and finally a long fan that took over an hour to finalize. This would have allowed up to 20 or so ticks to be captured with a target on or just above the HOD. In the long trend, it used the 13/20 SMAs as a moving floor.

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