10/8/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 17.6K
Employment Change Actual: -29.7K
Previous Revision: -88.9K to 32.1K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 6.0%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8786
1st Peak @ 0.8750 – 2030:04 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.8773 – 2032 (2 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 0.8756 – 2035 (5 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.8816 – 2103 (33 min)
60 ticks

Notes: The Australia Bureau of Statistics changed the calculation formula for this report. This resulted in a disappointing report showing 47.3k less jobs created than the forecast with an abnormally large downward correction to the previous report. The rate was unchanged, while the previous rate was revised down 0.1%. This caused a 36 tick short spike that started just above the LOD and fell to cross the PP Pivot. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled short at about 0.8771 with 7 ticks of slippage. It fell quickly to peak after 4 seconds and hovered in a choppy manner below the PP Pivot for 12 seconds presenting a trigger to exit with about 15 ticks. After the peak it reversed 23 ticks in the next min, then pulled back 17 ticks in 4 min to cross the PP Pivot again. Then it reversed 60 ticks to cross the Major SMAs and reach the HOD in 28 min.

12/10/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 15.2K
Employment Change Actual: 42.7K
Previous Revision: -10.4K to 13.7K
Rate Forecast: 6.3%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8336
False Spike to 0.8330 – 1930:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8372 – 1930:08 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.8349 – 1933 (3 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8375 – 1937 (7 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.8358 – 1951 (21 min)
17 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.8334 – 2057 (87 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Strong report with 27.5k more jobs created than the forecast with a matching rate, while the previous report was revised downward over 10k jobs. This caused a 6 tick short spike in the wrong direction initially that would have been contained by the 8 tick bracket. After that it spiked long for 36 ticks in 8 sec from the 50 SMA to eclipse the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled long at about 0.8552 with 8 ticks of slippage. It peaked and hovered briefly for about 4 sec near the top before retreating, then it rebounded later in the bar to allow up to 17 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks 4 min later. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 14 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs and another 24 ticks in the next hour as it eclipsed the 200 SMA.

2/11/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: -4.7K
Employment Change Actual: -12.2K
Previous Revision: +4.9K to 42.3K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7706
1st Peak @ 0.7641 – 1931:32 (2 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.7651 – 1933 (3 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7635 – 1952 (22 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 0.7652 – 2001 (31 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7630 – 2038 (68 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 0.7646 – 2102 (92 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Weak report with 7.5k more jobs lost than the forecast with a 0.2% increase in the rate while the previous report was revised moderately better. This caused a 65 tick short spike in about 1.5 min that started on the 50 / 100 SMAs and fell to cross the S2 Pivot as it extended the LOD. It fell 13 ticks instantly to fill the short entry with 4 ticks of slippage at 0.7694, then the 20 tick stop would have contained the volatility of the first few seconds before it decisively dove lower. It hovered near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec to allow an exit for up to 40 ticks. Then it trickled lower for 13 more ticks in the next 45 sec. After the peak, it reversed 10 ticks in 2 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 19 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks to cross the S2 Pivot before falling for a final peak of 5 more ticks after 37 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 24 min to the S2 Pivot.

5/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 4.5K
Employment Change Actual: -2.9K
Previous Revision: +10.4K to 48.1K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7924
1st Peak @ 0.7949 – 2130:06 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.7903 – 2130:18 (1 min)
-46 ticks

Pullback to 0.7945 – 2134 (4 min)
42 ticks

Continued Pullback to 0.7962 – 2147 (17 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Conflicting report with 2.9k jobs lost (7.4k below the forecast) with a match in the rate while the previous report was revised strongly better. This caused a premature long move of 22 ticks 7 sec early that collapsed as a tripwire to cancel the order. The setup would have been unstable but the probable anchor point would have been about 0.7924. On the choppy indecisive action you would have been filled long at 0.7932 then seen it chop around. A profit target placed at 15 ticks or less would have filled on the brief long move at 6 sec. Otherwise you would have eaten a small loss of 7-10 ticks before it would have fallen towards the stop loss. Another clear example of why we cancel the trades when we have a precursor of a losing scenario. After the chaotic :31 bar, it pulled back 42 ticks in 3 min to the area of the SMAs then another 17 ticks in 13 min to the HOD.

8/5/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.2K
Employment Change Actual: 38.5K
Previous Revision: -0.3K to 7.0K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 6.1%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7338
1st Peak @ 0.7383 – 2130:03 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.7316 – 2136 (6 min)
67 ticks

Pullback to 0.7333 – 2138 (8 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Strongly bullish report with 38.5k jobs gained – 28K above the forecast offset by a 0.2 worsening in the rate while the previous report was revised worse. This caused a long spike of 45 ticks that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and was shortly sustained due to the conflicting results. The jobs numbers bear more sway and caused the initial rise, then the rate caused the quick and strong reversal. With JOBB and an 8 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 0.7354 with 8 ticks of slippage. This is where a profit target is crucial as a setting of 28 ticks or less would have filled. A larger profit target or no profit target would have seen the best possible exit with 20 ticks (if immediate), but more likely between 5 and 10 ticks as the :31 bar progressed. The reversal fell a total of 67 ticks in 6 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 2 min and traded sideways.