11/2/2014 Building Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.9%
Actual: -11.0%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 3.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8727
1st Peak @ 0.8704 – 1930:06 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.8713 – 1932 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8685 – 1946 (16 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.8706 – 1952 (22 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8680 – 2002 (32 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 0.8697 – 2004 (34 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in very disappointing to cause a short spike of 23 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD in 6 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 0.8724 with no slippage, then allowed up to 16 ticks to be captured when it hovered near the bottom for over 30 sec. After that it reversed 9 ticks in 1 min to the S2 Mid Pivot, before falling another 19 ticks on a 2nd peak in 14 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA before falling for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 2 min to the S2 Pivot.

9/1/2014 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: +1.2% to -11.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9306
1st Peak @ 0.9312 – 2130:11 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.9306 – 2130:25 (1 min)
6 ticks

Pullback to 0.9311 – 2136 (6 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.9303 – 2142 (12 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 0.8% deviation, but a relatively large upward previous revision. This caused only a 6 tick long spike in 11 sec that started just above the S4 Pivot and rose to cross the 13 SMA and S4 Mid Pivot. It hovered for 4 sec near the top then reversed 6 ticks back to the origin in the middle of the bar. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.9309 with no slippage, then allowed 2 ticks to be captured if you exited quickly. Otherwise an exit between breakeven and 2 ticks loss would have been likely later in the bar. After the reversal, it pulled back 5 ticks in 5 min to cross the S4 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA before reversing 8 ticks in 6 min.

7/2/2014 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 9.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -5.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9344
1st Peak @ 0.9323 – 2130:04 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.9341 – 2139 (9 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.9327 – 2145 (15 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.9347 – 2151 (21 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in strong with 6.8% deviation, with a small downward previous revision. This caused a 21 tick short spike in 4 sec that started on the S4 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S4 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.9336 with 5 ticks of slippage, then continued to fall and chop around the LOD. Since this was in the aftermath of a large short move resulting from the RBA Gov Stevens announcement, be careful and exit more quickly when profit is apparent. An exit at 0.9325 would have been safe and prudent for 11 ticks where it hovered for 8 sec. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 8 min, crossing the S4 Pivot and 20 SMA. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in 6 min before reversing 20 ticks as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the S4 Mid Pivot.