4/5/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7567
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7546 – 0030:40 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7582 – 0031:43 (2 min)
)))36 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7571 – 0033 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7612 – 0035 (5 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 0.7562 – 0112 (42 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7547 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.7533 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7587 (just above the HOD) / 0.7602 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – 0.7547 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7581 – 34 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7567 (just above the S1 Pivot) and 0.7581 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Perfect trap trade setup with the settings. An inner tier of 0.7547 or higher would have filled. If you set it for 0.7546 and saw a near miss, there was plenty of opportunity to manually move it up about 3 ticks for a fill. Then it reversed nicely to the S1 Mid Pivot and continued to step higher in the next 3 min to the R1 Pivot. After that it collapsed slowly over 37 min for 50 ticks to the 200 SMA.

2/1/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7088 – shift 5 ticks higher to 0.7093
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7124 – 2230:05 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7089 – 2230:28 (1 min)
)))-35 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7110 – 2231:02 (2 min)
)))21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7099 – 2231:31 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7116 – 2233 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.7070 – 2251 (21 min)
46 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7073 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7058 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7114 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.7125 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7114 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7090 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7093 – just below the OOD / 100 SMA

Notes: The initial long spike would have peaked in between the 2 short entries for an inner tier fill. Then it quickly dropped to the origin area to allow up to 24 ticks to be captured. After a few more swings, it eventually drifted lower.

3/31/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2330 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor point @ 0.9234
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9257 – 2330:21 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9239 – 2331:07 (2 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9249 – 2331:34 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9220 – 2332:42 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.9230 – 2339 (9 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.9207 – 2348 (18 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 0.9221 – 2351 (21 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9221 (just above the OOD) / 0.9212 (in between the LOD and PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9246 (just above the R1 Pivot/ HOD) / 0.9256 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a long spike that was shortly sustained and then reversed strongly to make a great trap trade setup. The initial burst long for 23 ticks would have filled the both short entry tiers with 1 tick to spare, then reversed for 18 ticks in 47 sec. Since it is common to reverse beyond the origin, move the stop to the outer tier fill position and wait for it to fall to at least the SMAs and possibly R1 Mid Pivot or OOD level. After a pullback, it continued to fall on the :33 bar to the OOD allowing up to 60 total ticks to be captured from the average short position of 0.9251. After that it continued to step lower, but all follow up action is hard to predict, so do not look to place trades after the initial trap trade.

6/3/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor point @ 0.9246
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9258 – 0030:28 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9235 – 0031:15 (2 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.9254 – 0036 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9244 – 0040 (10 min)
-10 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9264 – 0124 (54 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9258 – 0132 (62 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9235 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.9224 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9258 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.9270 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a slow developing long spike followed by a reversal midway through the :32 bar, then a rebound and another reversal to make a great trap trade setup. The initial burst long for 12 ticks would have filled the inner short entry tier to the tick, then reversed for 23 ticks allowing an ideal exit near the PP Pivot / 200 SMA for about 22 ticks. After that it pulled back for 19 ticks in the next 5 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks to the 20 SMA before stepping higher to a final peak of 6 ticks more than the original peak nearly 1 hr after the report, clearing the R2 Pivot and extending the HOD.

8/5/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor point @ 0.9299 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9290 – 0030:14 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9302 – 0030:44 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

Pullback to 0.9291 – 0031:36 (2 min)
-11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.9317 – 0046 (16 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9289 (just below the LOD) / 0.9279 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9311 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.9319 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a short spike of 9 ticks that eclipsed the S1 Pivot and reached the LOD followed by a reversal of 12 ticks in the next 30 sec. You would have been your inner long entry just missed by 1 tick, so cancel the order as it reversed quickly. The reversal was shortly sustained and pulled back to the S1 Pivot midway through the :32 bar. After that it reversed strongly for a total of 26 ticks in the next 15 min.