10/6/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2330 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor point @ 0.8713 – shift to 0.8708 (on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8694 – 2330:26 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8703 – 2330:29 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8691 – 2330:33 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8698 – 2331:00 (2 min)
)))7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8682 – 2332 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8712 – 2342 (12 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.8696 – 2357 (27 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.8710 – 0012 (42 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8695 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.8685 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8719 (just above the OOD) / 0.8729 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a muted response that stayed within 4 ticks of the anchor point until 25 sec into the :31 bar. Cancel the order after 20 sec with no impulse. It eventually fell for a peak of 14 ticks to cross the PP Pivot, then stepped lower to eventually reach the S1 Mid Pivot for 26 ticks after 2 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 10 min to the R1 mid Pivot. If this reaction would have started immediately and panned out quicker, it would have been a good outer tier fill allowing for about 22 ticks on 2 contracts to be captured. Still be safe and cancel with the slow development.

12/1/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.8474 – shift to 0.8479
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8491 – 2230:13 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8474 – 2230:27 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8503 – 2231:28 (2 min)
)))29 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8463 – 2240 (10 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8519 – 2310 (40 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.8493 – 2357 (87 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8467 (on the LOD) / 0.8459 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8490 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8501 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. The initial anchor point would have shifted higher about 5 ticks after the 45 sec buffer, so bias the orders higher as time lapses. This caused a premature short move of 9 ticks 5 sec early followed by a long move of 12 ticks after 13 sec that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and reversed. Your inner short entry would have filled with 1 tick to spare then reversed quickly to allow at least 8 ticks and up to 16 ticks to be captured after 14 sec. There are 2 ways to play the reaction. You could have exited with the profit and cancelled any pending orders, or left the outer tiers on the board. If you followed the latter, your outer short entry would have filled at about 1:28 after the report. This is very similar to the reaction last month. Then it reversed for 40 ticks in the next 8 min to reach the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. The SMAs would have been a good target for about 25 ticks, but another 10-12 ticks could have been captured too. After the reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 28 more ticks in the next 30 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 26 ticks in the next 47 min as it crossed the 100 SMA.

3/2/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00%
Actual: 2.25%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor point @ 0.7770
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7821 – 2229:25 (0 min)
)))51 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7790 – 2229:39 (0 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7850 – 2230:01 (1 min)
)))60 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7802 – 2231:11 (2 min)
)))-48 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7821 – 2234 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7791 – 2246 (16 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.7825 – 2312 (42 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7743 (just below the S2 Pivot / LOD)
Short entry – 0.7800 (on the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Fresh after a surprise 25 BP rate cut last month, Australia’s central bank was expected to cut rates by another 25 BP but took everyone by surprise as they left rates unchanged. This caused a premature and very large long spike of 51 ticks about 35 sec early that reached the R4 Mid Pivot. We did anticipate this scenario, but underestimated the size of the spike by about 15 ticks. With JOBB and a single tier of about 30 ticks, you would have been filled with the short entry around 0.7800, then stopped 1 sec later at 0.7815 with 15 ticks loss. Then it reversed 31 ticks in the next 14 sec and chopped sideways in between the R2 and R3 Mid Pivots until the new bar where it spiked long for another 60 ticks in 1 sec to eclipse the R4 Pivot. Then it reversed 48 ticks in the next 70 sec to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back 19 ticks in 2 min to the R4 Mid Pivot before reversing 30 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 34 ticks in 26 min to the R4 mid Pivot and traded sideways.

5/5/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (25 BP cut)
Actual: 2.00% (25 BP cut)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7833
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7765 – 0030:03 (1 min)
)))68 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7831 – 0030:55 (1 min)
)))66 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7798 = 0031:28 (2 min)
)))33 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7890 – 0037 (7 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 0.7854 – 0039 (9 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7893 – 0058 (28 min)
39 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7780 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7886 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: After the last 3 reports had unexpected cut, and no move when a cut was expected causing much larger moves than we typically see, we finally nailed the settings on this report . The RBA acted as expected and cut rates 25 BP after the surprise cut in February. This caused a 68 tick short spike to nearly reach the S2 Pivot in 3 sec followed by a reversal of 66 ticks back to the origin in 52 sec. With This would have filled the inner long entry at 0.7780 with some possible positive slippage and ridden up to 15 ticks of heat then reversed nicely to allow up to 40+ ticks to captured. It would be wise to let it play out while moving the stop up to hedge profit. After the reversal it pulled back 33 ticks in 33 sec to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 82 ticks in 5 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 36 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot in 2 min before reversing 39 ticks for a double top in 19 min. After that it continued to trend higher.

7/7/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7448 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7465 – 0030:25 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7435 – 0031:26 (2 min)
)))-30 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7459 – 0032:55 (3 min)
)))24 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7441 – 0047 (17 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7471 – 0133 (63 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.7457 – 0146 (76 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7413 (in between the S3 / S3 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7480 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: After the last 4 reports had much volatility and larger moves, we used a single larger tier of 35 ticks. The RBA made no major change in this cycle after previous action. This caused a 17 tick long spike in 25 sec that started on the S2 Mid Pivot200 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA near the origin, then reach the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing. This would have fallen short of the tier, but it did hover for 10 sec near the top before reversing to allow an adjusted short entry at about 0.7462. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 1 min to cross the S2 Pivot / LOD to allow up to 25 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 24 ticks in 1 min to cross the S1 Pivot before reversing 18 ticks in 14 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 46 min before reversing 14 ticks in 13 min.