4/2/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.25%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0355
1st Peak @ 1.0380 – 1831 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 1.0321 – 1835 (5 min)
59 ticks

Reverse to 1.0308 – 1841 (11 min)
72 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Traders initially bought as there was a small chance the RBA would cut interest rates. Then the comments of moderate to slow growth caused the negative bias and selling. This caused a 25 tick spike, followed by a large reversal of more than 70 ticks 10 min later. If using JOBB, you would have gotten in long at about 1.0365. After the spike, the market hovered for 11 sec between 1.0371 and 1.0380 as it hit resistance at the R1 line. Close out here as it reversed significantly after that. The spike and the reversal did not have any problems cutting through the major SMAs as it was trading in a narrow FIST before the report, but broke through long and short with ease.

3/5/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: 4.25%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0633
1st Peak @ 1.0643 – 1731 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 1.0597 – 1739 / 1740 (9 /10 min)
46 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged as growth is forecast to be slower than normal, but fears of another downturn have been pacified. This caused a small 10 tick spike, followed by a large 46 tick reversal. If using JOBB, you would have seen an initial dull reaction, but stay with it as the report is still breaking. You would fill long after 30 sec, then see 5 ticks at the max 10 sec later before it retraced. I would close out with a small profit.

2/6/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2330 EDT)
Forecast: 4.00%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0656
1st Peak @ 1.0763 – 1734 (4 min)
107 ticks

Reverse to 1.0723 – 1745 (15 min)
40 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged as two cuts late last year help the economy weather Europe’s debt crisis. Most economists had forecast a rate cut. This caused a large spike, followed by a small reversal since a rate cut had already been priced into the short term market. If using JOBB, you would have filled long. Keep an eye on the Range. There is more volume than usual, and the spike is larger. Still with the seesawing / ratcheting, the trend was strongly upward. The peak was an instantaneous spike of 12 ticks, then it hovered around 1.0734 (15 ticks off the peak) for about 15 sec. I would close out there. It did continue up for a 2nd peak on the 1734 candle, but this is not expected after 93 ticks on the first candle.

12/5/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: 4.25%
Actual: 4.25%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0119
1st Peak @ 1.0079 – 1731 (1 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0068 – 1744 (14 min)
51 ticks

Reverse to 1.0096 – 1733 (3 min)
28 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to lower the cash rate to 4.25 per cent, effective 7 December 2011, matching predictions. This caused a healthy down spike, followed by a 2nd peak and reversal. If using JOBB, you would have filled short. Keep an eye on the Range. It fell and then commenced a ratcheting / seesaw routine for 30 sec, then only a few transactions were recorded in the next 30 sec. I would close out then at about 1.0090 or wait to see what the 1732 candle does. The double bottom on the 1 min chart is a 6x bottom on the range chart.

10/31/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2330 EDT)
Forecast: 4.50%
Actual: 4.50%
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0365
1st Peak @ 1.0315 – 1731 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reverse to 1.0351 – 1733 (2 min)
36 ticks

Notes: At its meeting today, the RBA decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, effective 2 November 2011, matching predictions. This caused a healthy down spike, followed by an immediate reversal. If using JOBB, you would have filled short. Keep an eye on the Range. It fell 40 ticks and retraced giving it all back in the first 2 sec before ratcheting down 50 ticks. Unless you have slippage issues and are filled late, the 15 tick stop loss should not fill on the retrace. I would play out the ratchet effect as it continued until the end of the candle. With the long tail and the 1732 candle starting green, I would close out at about 1.0327 on the 1732 candle.