Monthly Trade Balance | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_4_2016

4/4/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.55B
Actual: -3.41B
Previous Revision: -0.22B to -3.16B
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7572
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7558 – 2130:31 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Hovering around 0.7559 for 2 min
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7545 – 2205 (35 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7554 – 2216 (46 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7564 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7558 (in between the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7580 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7586 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: 0.7564 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7561 – 3 tick loss (likely exit 0.7559 – 5 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Biased result and strong bearish revision caused a decisive short spike that fell to the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot area, then got stuck. As the market volatility died, look to exit with a 3-5 tick loss. The outer tier would have been too large by a tick or so for a fill. After 25 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to the S2 Pivot before reversing 9 ticks.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 262016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.22B
Actual: -2.94B
Previous Revision: +0.02B to -3.52B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7287
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7293 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7288 – 1932:06 (3 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.7279 – 1945 (15 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7305 – 2019 (49 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7279 (just below the LOD / 0.7272 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7295 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7302 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order on a dull move and nearly matching results.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.2.2016

Feb 222016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_2_2016

2/2/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.45B
Actual: -3.54B
Previous Revision: +0.18B to -2.73B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7026
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7037 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7018 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.6990 – 1955 (25 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 0.7005 – 2008 (38 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7019 (in between the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA) / 0.7011 (in between the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD)
Short entries – 0.7033 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7042 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7033 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7019 – 14 ticks (inner long tier)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7019 (inner long tier unmoved)

Notes: Nice conflict with the Trade balance missing the forecast and an equally offsetting Bldg Permits. This caused an ideal whipsaw for the Trap Trade to capture 14 ticks with the inner tiers in 12 sec. After that it continued to fall as the Trade Balance results held sway.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/5/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.7%
Trade Bal
Forecast: 0.11B
Actual: 1.43B
Previous Revision: +0.12B to 0.59B
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8980 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9023 – 1930:10 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9008 – 1930:42 (1 min)
-15 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9028 – 1933
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.9013 – 1948 (18 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8966 (between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8956 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8997 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.9006 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report had the highest reading and largest offset since April 2013 with a decent upward previous revision, while the Trade Balance report also strongly exceeded the forecast by 1.3B with the highest reading since Feb 2012, coupled with a moderate upward previous report revision. The combination of unusually strong news caused a large decisive bullish spike of 43 ticks that had strong conviction in its climb and sustained the move. Your inner and outer tier short entries would have filled with about a second gap, then you would have been stopped with about 16 ticks with both entries with 1 tick of slippage for a combined 32 tick loss. Though this result was unfortunate, it was a rare extraordinary result and had a low probability of outcome. Still we will adjust the approach to trading combined resports such as this to just use 1 tier in the future to mitigate the risk and hedge the loss. After the peak was reached in 10 sec, it backed off 15 ticks in the next 30 sec, before achieving a 2nd peal of 5 more ticks on the :33 bar as it was flirting with the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks back to first impact the 13/20 SMAs. When this happens, it is a good place to buy the dip and look to get 10 or so ticks. This would have worked nicely as it achieved a double top about 41 min after the report. Then it traded sideways near the R3 Mid Pivot as volume dried up.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Apr 252014

4/2/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: 0.82B
Actual: 1.20B
Previous Revision: -0.04B to 1.39B
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9199 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9180 – 2030:07 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9199 – 2030:29 (1 min)
19 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9171 – 2052 (22 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9183 – 2057 (27 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9180 or 9176 (below the S1 Pivot or on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9224 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report missed the forecast by 0.2% with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.38B with a negligible downward previous report revision. The conflicting results provided a great setup for the Trap Trade. If you used 0.9180 or higher for your long entry, you would have been filled, then you would have seen it reverse in the next 22 sec back to the SMAs allowing up to 18 ticks to be captured. With the SMAS and PP Pivot as a strong resistance barrier, look to exit when you see it that area. As I mentioned in the chat room, the retail #s are dominant, and expect a decent size 2nd peak in this situation. It fell for another 9 ticks beyond the 1st peak after 21 min, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in the next 5 min back to the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA. The CNY Trade Balance released at 2100 to cause the short move after that.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.5.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 242014

5/5/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EDT)
Forecast: 1.10B
Actual: 0.73B
Previous Revision: +0.06B to 1.26B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9261 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9252 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9261 – 2130:13 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9249 – 2133 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.9259 – 2141 (11 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9266 – 2201 (31 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9253 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9246 (just above the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9268 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.9277 (On the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 0.37B, with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a dip downward of 9 ticks that quickly reversed course after hitting the 200 SMA, and R1 Mid Pivot to the origin 6 sec after the peak. Your inner tier long entry would have filled then given you about 3-5 ticks on the reversal to be captured in between the 50 and 100 SMAs. If you waited too long to exit, a 10 min wait would have seen a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks followed by a reversal of 10 ticks 8 min later to give you the same opportunity. If you were patient for another 20 min, another 7 ticks could have been captured as it reached the HOD.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 152014

6/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.40B
Actual: -0.12B
Previous Revision: +0.17B to 0.90B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9266 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9255 – 2130:15 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9260 – 2130:25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9253 – 2136 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9277 – 2206 (36 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9256 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.9251 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 0.9274 (just above the HOD) / 0.9282 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 0.28B, with a sizeable upward previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 11 ticks that was unusually sustained and did not want to reverse much. Your inner tier long entry would have filled then given you about 3 ticks on the reversal to be captured as it hovered for about 20 sec. This is also a case where being very patient would have worked out as the real reversal took over 20 min to materialize. The S1 Pivot held well as support, so if you are going for the long play probably use 9252 or 9251 as the stop (-4 or -5 ticks). The 200 SMA / PP Pivot would be a good target for about 12 ticks. It continued to reverse to the R1 Mid Pivot for a total of 24 ticks.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.1.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/1/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.16B
Actual: -1.91B
Previous Revision: -0.66B to -0.78B
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9436 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9421 – 2130:28 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9424 – 2130:31 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9411 – 2139 (9 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.9420 – 2155 (25 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9428 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9421 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9444 (just below the HOD) / 0.9452 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast by 1.75B, with a sizeable downward previous report revision. This caused a decisive short spike of 15 ticks that was unusually sustained and did not want to reverse much due to the biased news. Your inner tier and outer long entries would have filled then given you an exit within 1 tick of breakeven as it hovered around 0.9424 for over 1 min. In this situation get out with the breakeven, since a further reversal is unlikely and it continued to fall for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 8 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for only 9 ticks in 16 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.4.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 252014

8/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.00B
Actual: -1.68B
Previous Revision: -0.15B to -2.04B
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9301 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9307 – 2130:16 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9301 – 2135:18 (6 min)
)))-6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9294 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9286 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9308 (just above the OOD) / 0.9317 (on the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.32B, with a moderate downward previous report revision. This caused a small long spike of 6 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot then reached the OOD. This would have fallen just short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order with no fill. It took 5 min to reverse back to the origin as it reached the 100/50 SMAs. Then it traded sideways for a few min until the CNY HSBC Services report was released at 2145.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.3.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 182014

9/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.77B
Actual: -1.36B
Previous Revision: +0.12B to -1.56B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.9349 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9360 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9351 – 2130:59 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.9343 – 2143 (13 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.9350 – 2204 (34 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9329 (below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD)
Short entry – 0.9372 (in between the R3 Mid and R3 Pivots)

Notes: Retail Sales report matched the forecast with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.41B with a moderate upward previous report revision. The conflicting results caused a long spike of 11 ticks that surrendered 9 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. This would have fallen well short of the short entry at 20 ticks. It hovered between 0.9358 and 0.9360 for about 10 sec to allow a consolidation point above the R2 Pivot to manually move the short entry. If you did, you would have seen an opportunity to exit with 6-8 ticks as the :31 bar was expiring. It continued to reverse for another 8 ticks in the next 12 min to the 100 SMA. Then it pulled back 7 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot after another 21 min.

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