8/1/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.36B
Actual: 0.01B
Previous Revision: -0.02B to -0.31B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0415
1st Peak @ 1.0434 – 1531 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.0220 – 1551 (21 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a slight downward previous report revision. The AUS Retail Sales was also released coming in moderately better than expected. This caused a medium sized long spike that would have filled your long JOBB entry at about 1.0424, allowing for about 8 ticks to be captured. The spike crossed the 200 SMA near the origin, then peaked just below the PP Pivot. The reversal came back to the 50 and 200 SMAs at 1.0420, before rebounding upward.

6/7/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: -0.92B
Actual: -0.20B
Previous Revision: +0.31B to -1.28B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9860
1st Peak @ 0.9849 / Reverse to 0.9867 – 1531 (1 min)
-11 ticks / 7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9843 – 1541 (11 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9863 – 1551 (21 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast, but still a deficit, with a positive revision to the previous report. This caused indecision resulting in a short move of 11 ticks then a quick reversal for 7 ticks. After the double wicker 31 bar, it shorted for 17 ticks then reversed for 20 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short, then stopped out a few seconds later on the reversal on the 31 bar.

4/3/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: 1.12B
Actual:-0.48B
Previous Revision:-0.30B to -0.97B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0226
1st Peak @ 1.0195 – 1534 (4 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0187 – 1542 (12 min)
39 ticks (3x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0198 – 1551 (38 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with a strongly negative revision to the previous report. This caused a decent spike downward of 31 ticks with a small pullback, then a 2nd peak of 39 ticks 8 minutes later. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0210 with slippage. You could get out safely after hovering at 1.0203, but this report is prone to peaking after the :01 candle and yielding a 2nd peak. If you stayed in, the triple bottom at the 2nd peak is a good indication that the trend is about to reverse along with the inability to penetrate the S1 line support, so exit there. The reversal was small and the volume noticeably dropped after :46.

2/1/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 1.22B
Actual:1.71B
Previous Revision: -0.04B to 1.34B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0659
1st Peak @ 1.0674 – 1433 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0679 – 1439 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal: n/a (negligible)

Notes: Report exceeded forecast, but previous report revised strongly upward. Report broke at the same time as Monthly BLDG Approvals which slightly disappointed taking some of the momentum away from the spike. I would not trade this report with the BLDG Approval at the same time. Small reaction overall, especially considering no SMAs were crossed, so it should be unbridled.

11/7/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 3.02B
Actual:2.56B
Previous Revision:-0.15B to 2.95B
Spike / REtrace
Started @ 1.0210
1st Peak @ 1.0188 – 1436 (6 min)
22 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0203 – 1447 (17 min)
15 ticks (6x top)

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with a small negative previous report revision. The 1431 candle crossed the 50 SMA downward. This restrained its momentum, but the report was negative enough so that it continued down after 2-3 minutes. This would be a tough one to call to stay in or get out after the 1431 candle. It hovered, but did not want to reverse yet. It did continue down another 13 ticks and bottomed out at 1436. The big red candle would be a good indication to get out as it is the same size as the 1431 candle.