Monthly Trade Balance | JO Bracket Breakout

10/3/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.14B
Actual:3.10B
Previous Revision: -0.01B to 1.82B
Spike / REtrace
Started @ 0.9318
1st Peak @ 0.9333 – 1431 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9288 – 1550 (20 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. Report broke at the same time as Monthly BLDG Approval which had a positive result, but does not influence the market much. I would not trade this report with the BLDG Approval release at the same time, and the tail on the 1431 candle serves as a warning. I would keep an eye on it though once the report results are known to possibly play the reversal. In this case the double top at 0.9333, the crossing of the 50 and 100 SMAs by the 1431 candle, the downslope of the large SMAs, and the 200 SMA above make a great entry point for a short. As it fell 45 ticks in the next few min, I would get out after the big red candle at 1439 at about 0.9294.

8/2/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 2.22B
Actual:2.05B
Previous Revision:+0.37B to 2.70B
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0461
1st Peak @ 1.0408 – 1531 (1 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0399 – 1542 (12 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 1.0417 – 1550 (20 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, but previous report revised strongly upward. Report broke at the same time as Monthly Retail Sales which largely disappointed causing most of the short momentum. I would trade this report as the Retail Sales report causes a large reaction. The 1531 candle ratcheted down and then hovered at 1.0408 for 12 sec. That is the cue to get out as it pulled back giving up 19 ticks. It did return for a 2nd peak for 9 more ticks, before reversing 18 ticks.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.02.11