11/11/2013 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 5
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9347
1st Peak @ 0.9320 – 1934 (4 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9315 – 1949 (19 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9331 – 2001 (31 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9304 – 2131 (121 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9312 – 2146 (136 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in much less than the previous month to cause a short move of 27 ticks over the :31 – :34 bars that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and eclipse the S1 Pivot while extending the LOD. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage. The S1 Mid Pivot would have been a safe and conservative exit for about 10-12 ticks. After the peak, it struggled with the S1 Pivot for about 15 min, then reversed for 16 ticks back to the 50 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. Then it proceeded to take slow and progressive steps lower in a downward fan that used the 50 SMA as resistance and eventually crossed the S2 Mid Pivot about 2 hrs after the report. Then it reversed for 8 ticks in 15 min.

1/27/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 6
Previous Revision: +1 to 6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8711
1st Peak @ 0.8735 – 1932 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.8727 – 1933 (3 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8741 – 1947 (17 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.8725 – 2017 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt higher than last month with a small upward previous revision. This caused a 24 tick long spike that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and 13/20 SMAs and crossed the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot while extending the HOD. Once again the move was slow and tame resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking in the middle of the :32 bar . The R1 Pivot would have been a safe exit for about 18-20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 8 ticks, then achieved a Final peak of 6 more ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 30 min back to the R1 Mid Pivot, then it traded sideways.

3/10/2014 NAB Business Confidence (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 7
Previous Revision: +1 to 9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9035
1st Peak @ 0.9012 – 2032 (2 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9006 – 2053 (23 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.9026 – 2119 (49 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9035 – 2224 (114 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt lower than last month with an upward previous revision. This caused a 23 tick short spike that started on the HOD and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot, and OOD. The spike was still tame but moved faster than the last few reactions resulting in a fill with low slippage and peaking about halfway through the :32 bar. With the :31 bar hitting the LOD and the PP Pivot / 200 SMA a little above, look to exit just a tick or 2 lower than the LOD on the :32 bar. After the peak, it reversed for only 7 ticks, before continuing to fall for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot 20 min later. Due to the upward revision, we did not get a large lasting 2nd peak, but a small one and a larger reversal that recovered 20 ticks in 26 min, and another 9 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

5/11/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 6
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9329
1st Peak @ 0.9337 – 2131 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9330 – 2131 (1 min)
7 ticks

Pullback to 0.9335 – 2134 (4 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report came in 2 pts higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a relatively small 8 tick long spike that started on the 20 SMA and rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the OOD, and nick the PP Pivot before collapsing. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.9335 with 2 ticks of slippage, then a quick reversal would have stopped you for a 5 tick loss. Then you would have seen it climb slowly on the next 3bars to reach the 100 SMA. So, the last 2 reactions have been quick spikes as a change of behavior from the previous reports, but the action after the :31 bar is still consistent.

8/11/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 11
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9229
1st Peak @ 0.9243 – 2130:03 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.9234 – 2132 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9247 – 2142 (12 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9241 – 2146 (16 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in 3 pts higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a moderate 14 tick long spike that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the PP Pivot and OOD. The reaction was unfortunately quick and retreated after hitting the PP Pivot and OOD on top of each other. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.9237 with 4 ticks of slippage, then given you a brief profit of 6 ticks for 5 sec before retreating to 3 ticks in the red. Then it rebounded for the typical peak early in the :33 bar to allow 4-5 ticks to be captured (as advised in the alert). It spent about 10 min chopping between the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, then finally was able to climb for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 6 ticks in the next 4 min back to the PP Pivot.