Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.10.2015

May 152015

5/10/2015 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Previous: 3
Actual: 3
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.7899
1st Bar Span 0.7899 to 0.7900 – 2100 (1 min)
1 tick

Notes: Report came in matching the last month with no previous revision. This caused no reaction and did not even budge until 41 sec into the :31 bar. This would have made it an easy decision to cancel the order with no fill. After 2 min in fell about 8 ticks, but the market was already engaged in a downtrend prior to the news and was likely continuing the trend vice reacting to the news.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.18.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 192015

5/18/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 0.7981
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7959 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7975 – 2131:46 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
—————-
Final peak @ 0.7945 – 2146 (16 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7989 – 2336 (126 min)
44 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7961 (in between the S1 Mid / S1 Pivots)
Short entry – 0.8000 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused an expected large short move that correlated with the Cash Rate move from 2 weeks prior. This would have fallen 22 ticks in 5 sec to fill the long entry. Then it chopped chaotically for about 30 sec before settling down to reverse 16 ticks late in the :32 bar. This would have allowed up to about 14 ticks to be captured. It continued to hover around the 13 SMA before stepping lower for a final peak of 14 more ticks in 14 min after crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed slowly for 44 ticks in about 2 hrs to the HOD.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.27.2015

Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure Comments Off

Jun 042015

5/27/2015 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.3%
Actual: -4.4%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to -1.7%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.7747
1st Peak@ 0.7707 – 2131:54 (2 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7688 – 2136 (6 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 0.7702 – 2140 (10 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7664 – 2254 (84 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 0.7684 – 2308 (98 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 2.1% but was offset by a 0.5% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 40 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs and reach the PP Pivot in nearly 2 min. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.7743 with no slippage. You would have seen it fall and encounter first support at the LOD when it bounced a little. An exit around 0.7718 near the R1 Mid Pivot would have secured about 25 ticks. It continued to fall another 19 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 4 min. Then it fell another 24 ticks in 74 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks to the 100 SMA and traded sideways on the S2 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.2.2015

Building Approvals, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 032015

2/2/2015 Monthly Trade Balance / BLDG Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.85B
Actual: -0.44B
Previous Revision: -0.09B to -1.02B
Forecast: -4.8%
Actual: -3.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 7.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7776
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7766 – 1930:05 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7784 – 1930:50 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.7787 – 1939 (9 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup (1 tier – 15/20 ticks):
Long entry – 0.7761 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7796 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.41B with a small downwad previous report revision while the BLDG Approvals report also exceeded the forecast by 1.5% with a negligible upward previous revision. All of this caused a whipsaw that was just too small by a few ticks to fill the inner long entry as it fell 10 ticks to fall short of the S1 Pivot then reversed for 18 ticks to reach the 200 SMA. Cancel the order as it was fleeting and fell short of the tier. After the :31 bar, it climbed 3 more ticks in the next 8 min to reach the PP Pivot and HOD.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 6.2.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jun 112015

6/2/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7624
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7658 – 0030:30 (1 min)
)))34 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7641 – 0030:43 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7657 – 0031:03 (2 min)
)))33 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7635 – 0038 (8 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7679 – 0049 (19 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.7666 – 0051 (21 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7688 – 0124 (54 min)
64 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7677 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7574 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: After the last 4 reports had much volatility and larger moves, we continued the setting of a single tier at 50 ticks. The RBA made no major change in this cycle after previous action. This caused a 34 tick long spike in 30 sec that started on the 200 SMA and rose to cross the 100/50 SMAs near the origin, then reach the R2 Mid Pivot before reversing. This would have fallen short of the tier, so either move the order down to the area around 0.7655 after the market starts to reverse or cancel the order. It swung up and down between the R1 Pivot and R2 Mid Pivot a few times before eventually reversing to a little below the R1 Pivot after 8 min. Then it stepped higher for a 2nd peak on the R2 Pivot and a Final peak 9 ticks above that after an hour.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 6.2.2015

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/2/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7764
1st Peak@ 0.7819 – 2130:02 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.7783 – 2132 (2 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7814 – 2140 (10 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7784 – 2244 (74 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a margin of 0.2% with no previous revision. This caused a large long spike of 55 ticks immediately, then backed off. It started on the 20 SMA and climbed to reach the R1 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 17 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.7485 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it peak and retrace in the next sec. A profit target of anything less than 30 ticks would have filled. Otherwise look to exit quickly when profit is on the table in the most expedient manner. You should have been able to exit with about 10-20 ticks. After that it reversed 3 ticks in 1 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 31 ticks in 8 min . Then it reversed 30 ticks in 64 min after crossing the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.2%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -2.17B
Actual: -3.89B
Previous Revision: +0.09B to -1.23B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7770 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7732 – 2130:21 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7740 – 2130:41 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.7705 – 2141 (11 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.7724 – 2204 (34 min)
19 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.7731 -2319 (109 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7750 (above the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7785 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Both reports missed the forecast with the trade balance really dropping a bomb. This caused a decisive short spike that refused to reverse. This is why we only trade the outer tier in this situation and use a reasonably tight stop. Your long entry would have filled at 0.7750 after 3 sec. Then it hovered a few ticks in the red before hitting the stop for a 10 tick loss after 8 sec. You could have closed prior to the stop out, but unless you had deciphered the results, there would not have been reason to do so after less than 10 sec. It continued to step lower for another 27 ticks in 10 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 23 min and another 7 ticks in another 75 min. If you were savvy, after seeing the results, look to short the market in the 0.7730 area and use the S2 Pivot as a target for about 20 ticks.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 6.10.2015

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jun 232015

6/10/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 12.1K
Employment Change Actual: 42.0K
Previous Revision: -10.8K to -13.7K
Rate Forecast: 6.2%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7708
Premature Spike to 0.7700 – 2129:59 (0 min)
8 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.7790 – 2131:13 (2 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 0.7767 – 2139 (9 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 0.7783 – 2146 (16 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7751 – 2155 (25 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Strongly bullish report with 42.0k jobs gained (about 30k above the forecast) with a 0.2 improvement in the rate while the previous report was revised strongly worse. This caused a premature short move of about 15 ticks on the :59 sec bar followed by the true move of a 82 tick long spike in 73 sec that crossed the R2 Pivot. With JOBB most likely your short order would have filled at .7700 then as we recommend the “reverse if stopped” for this report, you would have been stopped at about 0.7728 with 8 ticks of slippage, then seen your reversal order shoot up to the 0.7775 area to encounter first resistance on the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it continued to snag another 15 ticks in the next min. An early exit would have yielded about 45 or so ticks where a patient exit would have yielded close to 60 ticks. This would have netted 20-35 ticks after the initial loss. After the peak, it reversed 23 ticks in 7 min before pulling back 16 ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 9 min to the PP Pivot.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 6.15.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jun 272015

6/15/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Started @ 0.7728
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7705 – 2130:09 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7741 – 2131:21 (2 min)
)))36 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.7732 – 2133 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7744 – 2134 (4 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.7714 – 2145 (15 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.7730 – 2200 (30 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7712 (in between the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entry – 0.7744 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short move (opposite of the cash rate from 2 weeks ago) of 23 tick to nearly reach the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD before reversing . This would have filled the long entry at 0.7712 with 7 ticks to spare, then reversed 36 ticks in about 72 sec to allow up to 28 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 9 ticks in 1 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 12 ticks in 1 min to reach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 30 ticks in 11 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 16 ticks in 15 min to the cross the 50 SMA. After that it traded sideways in the realm of the SMAs.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 262015

7/1/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.21B
Actual: -2.75B
Previous Revision: -0.25B to -4.14B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7620
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7604 – 2130:11 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7611 – 2131:10 (2 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7601 – 2134 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7610 – 2139 (9 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7599 – 2144 (14 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7611 – 2151 (21 min)
12 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7627 – 2351 (151 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7611 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7604 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.7628 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7636 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.54B with a moderate downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks in 11 sec that crossed all 3 Major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and reached the LOD then reversed. This would have filled the inner long entry after 8 sec and the outer tier (if placed at 0.7604 or higher) 3 sec later making 0.76075 your average long position. Due to the consistent bearish news, do not wait for a strong reversal and look to exit quickly when it retreated to the S1 Mid Pivot at 0.7610 for 5 total ticks. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in 2 min before reversing 9 ticks in 5 min to the S1 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 5 min before reversing 12 ticks in 7 min. It continued to climb another 16 ticks slowly in 2 hrs as it crossed the PP Pivot and extended the HOD.

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