2/24/2016 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.1%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.8% to -8.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7185
Whipsaw between 0.7196 and 0.7175 – 1930:03 (1 min)
21 tick span

1st Peak @ 0.7200 – 1930:07 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7161 – 1933 (3 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 0.7173 – 1939 (9 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.7154 – 2002 (32 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7191 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7179 – 12 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: First indecisive reaction seen on this report in the last 3 yrs due to unforeseen reasons. As it fell, it used the falling 13/20 SMAs as resistance while it stepped lower.

5/28/2014 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6%
Actual: -4.2%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to -4.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9221
1st Peak@ 0.9200 – 2130:04 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.9250 – 2132:30 (3 min)
50 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9277 – 2316 (106 min)
77 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 2.6% but was offset by a 0.7% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 21 ticks that started just below the OOD / 200 SMA and fell to hit the S1 Pivot after 4 sec, It hovered in a 4 tick range for about 8 sec before retreating to hover near the S1 Mid Pivot then back to the origin. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled with 5 ticks of slippage at 0.9112. You would have seen the hovering and relatively small move, so exit quickly here for about 10 ticks, or after the small retreat for 3 ticks. It continued to reverse long on the previous revision news for a total of 50 ticks in 2 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it climbed another 27 ticks in 103 min to the R4 Mid Pivot.

11/26/2014 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.7%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8525
1st Peak@ 0.8550 – 1930:49 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.8539 – 1933 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8557 – 1942 (12 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.8535 – 2001 (31 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.9% along with a 0.5% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks that started on the PP Pivot and rose to hit and stall at the 200 SMA after 2 sec, then resume climbing to cross the R1 Mid Pivot just before the :31 bar expired. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled with 3 ticks of slippage at 0.8532. You would have seen it stall on the 200 SMA for only 4 sec, but be patient as the result and previous revision are consistent and the size of the spike at 10 ticks was very small compared to the average. Sure enough, it climbed another 15 ticks as the bar neared expiration to allow up to 17 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 2 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks to the 200 SMA in 19 min.

5/27/2015 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.3%
Actual: -4.4%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to -1.7%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.7747
1st Peak@ 0.7707 – 2131:54 (2 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7688 – 2136 (6 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 0.7702 – 2140 (10 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7664 – 2254 (84 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 0.7684 – 2308 (98 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 2.1% but was offset by a 0.5% upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 40 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs and reach the PP Pivot in nearly 2 min. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.7743 with no slippage. You would have seen it fall and encounter first support at the LOD when it bounced a little. An exit around 0.7718 near the R1 Mid Pivot would have secured about 25 ticks. It continued to fall another 19 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 4 min. Then it fell another 24 ticks in 74 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks to the 100 SMA and traded sideways on the S2 Mid Pivot.

11/25/2015 Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.8%
Actual: -9.2%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -4.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7254
1st Peak@ 0.7222 – 1931:00 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.7237 – 1933 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7211 – 1946 (16 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.7222 – 2000 (30 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7249 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 0.7223 – 26 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7225 (below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Large offset caused a good spike. Great 2nd peak opportunity to short it above the S1 Pivot and cover below the S2 Mid Pivot.