9/15/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Started @ 0.8982 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8972 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8988 – 2130:47 (1 min)
)))16 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8983 – 2130:56 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.8996 – 2140 (10 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 0.8983 – 2148 (18 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8974 (in between the PP Pivot and 200 SMA) / 0.8966 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8990 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.8998 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 11 ticks initially after 6 sec to briefly penetrate the PP Pivot, then reverse quickly for about 10 ticks then another 6 ticks after another 30 sec. This would have been a perfect and easy setup for the trap trade. Your inner long entry would have filled with 2 ticks to spare, then you would have seen instant profit as it pulled up to the area of the R1 Mid Pivot. As it normally reversed to the opposite side of the origin, move your stop up to secure a few ticks, then set a target near the R1 Pivot at 0.8988. This would have filled allowing up to 14 ticks to be captured after 47 sec, then again on the :33 bar and later as it kept climbing for another 8 ticks. After that it pulled back to the 50 SMA in 8 min for 13 ticks. Then it traded sideways.

11/17/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.8692 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8686 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8701 – 1931:39 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8696 – 1934 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.8709 – 1942 (12 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.8692 – 2024 (54 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8684 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 0.8676 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8699 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.8707 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 6 ticks initially after 10 sec to nearly reach the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot then reversed. As it did not hover but “stabbed lower”, there would not have been an opportunity for a manual adjusted entry. Still since the Cash rate from 2 weeks prior fell before reversing in a sustained long move, it would be safe to enter long near the anchor point as it reversed 15 ticks in about 90 sec. This would have allowed up to 10 ticks to be captured. After a 5 tick pullback in 2 min to the PP Pivot, it reversed for 13 ticks as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in the next 42 min to the 200 SMA.

3/16/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Started @ 0.7595 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7568 – 2030:14 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7587 – 2031:28 (2 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7578 – 2032:39 (3 min)
)))-8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7595 – 2041 (11 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.7572 – 2054 (24 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.7586 – 2113 (43 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7579 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7611 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that stepped down slowly for 16 ticks in 13 sec, then another 11 ticks in the next sec. It crossed the S2 Pivot and reversed. While we advise cancelling the bracket if not filled in 20 sec, the gradual move is also a poor scenario for a reversal and should have been a tripwire to cancel the order before it filled. If you did not cancel, your long entry would have filled at 0.7579 then your stop would have been barely filled at 0.7569 for a 10 tick loss before it reversed. It climbed 19 ticks in a little over a minute to the S1 Pivot which would have allowed about 7 ticks to be captured if the stop had been a mere 2 ticks larger. Then it fell 8 ticks in the next min to the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 17 ticks in 8 min to the 50 SMA. Then it fell 23 ticks in 13 min before reversing 14 ticks in 19 min to the S1 Pivot.

5/18/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 0.7981
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7959 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7975 – 2131:46 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
—————-
Final peak @ 0.7945 – 2146 (16 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7989 – 2336 (126 min)
44 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7961 (in between the S1 Mid / S1 Pivots)
Short entry – 0.8000 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused an expected large short move that correlated with the Cash Rate move from 2 weeks prior. This would have fallen 22 ticks in 5 sec to fill the long entry. Then it chopped chaotically for about 30 sec before settling down to reverse 16 ticks late in the :32 bar. This would have allowed up to about 14 ticks to be captured. It continued to hover around the 13 SMA before stepping lower for a final peak of 14 more ticks in 14 min after crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed slowly for 44 ticks in about 2 hrs to the HOD.

7/20/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7354
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7345 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7363 – 2130:27 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7338 – 2136 (6 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7346 – 2141 (11 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7335 – 2148 (18 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7349 – 2209 (39 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7338 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7370 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short move (opposite of the cash rate from 2 weeks ago) of 9 ticks that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the LOD before reversing. Due to the last several months seeing larger volatility and reactions we just used the outer tier. This would have made the report dull as it did not get near the tier so cancel the order. It reversed 18 ticks in 21 sec as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 5 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min to the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a final peak of 3 more ticks in 7 min before reversing 14 ticks in 21 min to the 100/200 SMAs.