8/7/2014 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9244
1st Peak @ 0.9224 – 2133:41 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.9236 – 2137 (7 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9216 – 2214 (44 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9233 – 2231 (61 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia’s major mining industry was revised slightly lower in the remaining portion of 2014 and 2015. This caused a short move that took most of 4 bars to achieve 20 ticks. The spike started on the 200 SMA and OOD then fell to eclipse the 100/50 SMAs and the S2/ S2 Mid Pivots. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled short at 0.9239 then initially hovered between breakeven and 4 ticks of profit until late in the :31 bar. Then it continued to fall as it conquered the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD for another 10 ticks. It reversed strongly for 12 ticks in 3 min back to the 13 SMA to allow a great short opportunity as it hit the 13 SMA for a 2nd peak trade. It fell for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in the next 37 min to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Targeting the S3 Mid Pivot would have allowed up to 16 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 17 min to the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot then traded sideways until the Chinese trade balance report at 2258.

2/5/2015 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7789
1st Peak @ 0.7782 – 1930:10 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.7818 – 1930:33 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7804 – 1932 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7842 – 1936 (6 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 0.7806 – 1948 (18 min)
36 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia and its major trading partners met or very nearly met expectations overall. This caused a short move initially that changed direction after about 20 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have been filled short at 0.7786 with no slippage, then seen it fall to hover on the 100 SMA for 3-4 ticks of profit for 11 sec before reversing strongly. This is the first instance of this report to behave this way to have a relatively tame change of sentiment several seconds after the release. You may have observed the hovering and exited with a few ticks, but if not you would have seen it slowly march to the stop for a 5 tick loss on its way to a 36 tick reversal achieved halfway through the :31 bar as it crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in the next minute to the R1 Pivot before reversing 38 ticks to eclipse the R2 Pivot in 4 min. Then it pulled back 36 ticks back to the R1 Pivot in 12 min.

8/6/2015 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7334
1st Peak @ 0.7352 – 2130:30 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7340 – 2132 (2 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7365 – 2231 (61 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7359 – 2245 (75 min)
6 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia and its major trading partners has continued to grow after the slackening in 2nd quarter. This caused a long move of 18 ticks that started after 20 sec and peaked 10 sec later at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have been filled long at 0.7337 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit near the top where it hovered at 0.7350 with 13 ticks. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 1 min before stepping higher for a final peak of 13 more ticks in about an hour. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 14 min and traded sideways.

2/6/2014 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8924
1st Peak @ 0.8944 – 1931 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8952 – 1933 (3 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.8901 – 2017 (47 min)
51 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia’s major trading partners appears to have remained at around its long-term average rate. This caused a large long move was relatively tame. The long spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot for 20 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled long at 0.8928 with 1 tick of slippage then ratcheted upward for 20 ticks just before the bar expired. Once again we saw a larger reaction, although smaller than 3 months ago. A conservative profit target of any value would have easily filled, but the PP Pivot would have been a perfect exit for about 14 ticks. After the peak, it struggled briefly with the PP Pivot before gaining another 8 ticks and crossing the R1 Mid Pivot for the 2nd peak. Then it chopped sideways before falling 51 ticks while crossing the S2 Pivot about 45 min later.