RBA Monetary Policy | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 052013

2/7/2013 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0245
1st Peak @ 1.0231 – 1931 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reverse to 1.0245 – 1939 (9 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0227 – 2020 (50 min)
18 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.0248 – 2102 (92 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Citing more positive economic development in recent months after a worse stint in earlier 2012, and further signs that the Chinese economy has stabilized, the RBA remains cautiously dovish, but has an optimistic outlook. This caused a 14 tick short move that extended the LOD, and bottomed out above the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at 1.0241 with no slippage then would have given you an opportunity to close out with about 7 ticks before it reversed long on the :32 bar. After a quick reversal that reclaimed the entire spike, it trended lower and headed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 40 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot. Then the final reversal achieved 21 ticks in 42 min. The spike at 2107 was due to the release of the Chinese Trade Balance.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Nov 082012

11/8/2012 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0358
1st Peak @ 1.0348 – 1431 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 1.0374 – 1530 (60 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Minimal excitement on this report. Citing a mildly positive outlook for economic growth in the US and Asia, and weak but stabilizing conditions in Europe, the RBA continues to take a slightly dovish approach. This caused a 10 short move that hit the S2 Pivot and bounced back. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at 1.0353 with no slippage then would have given you a brief opportunity to close out with 3-4 ticks before it reversed long. If you were not quick enough to eke out a few ticks, do not get greedy. Close out at or near breakeven on the :31 or :32 bar. After trading sideways for 20 min, it began a slow reversal long for 26 total tick that crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Pivot to peak at the HOD 1 hr after the report.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Aug 092012

8/9/2012 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0536
1st Peak @ 1.0528 – 1534 (4 min)
8 ticks

Reverse to 1.0537 – 1540 (10 min)
9 ticks

Notes: No excitement on this report. Since the :31 bar only moved 6 ticks, your JOBB order would not have filled. With no fill in the first 10-15 seconds, cancel the order, but you would have been safe anyway. The volume was low and action was also stuck between the 3 major SMAs. The action could not go above the 200 SMA or below the area above the S1 Pivot, indicating nothing to drive the market.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 032012

5/3/2011 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0214
1st Peak @ 1.0208 – 1531 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reverse to 1.0234 – 1547 (17 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.0226 – 1559 (29 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Small moving report compared to the historical reactions over the pas t year. Dull spike of 6 ticks that likely would have filled your JOBB. If you see the double bottom at 1.0208, then a change in direction, I would close out with a 3-5 tick loss just in case it might come down again. When it strongly penetrated the 200 SMA upward with no effects of resistance, it is obviously going long for a while with more magnitude, so a follow on long entry would be safe with an exit at the double top of 1.0232.

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 04.16.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Apr 162012

4/16/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0273
1st Peak @ 1.0257 – 1531 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reverse to 1.0285 – 1545 (15 min)
28 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Relatively small spike with long tail on the :31 candle. This report typically yields more ticks and the spike only had to contend with the S1 Pivot, but the sharp reversal is a good indication that it will not gear up for another short dive. I would close out with a handful of ticks profit. The stagnant activity on the :32-:34 candles indicates an effort to go short again after the retracement, but after 3 minutes, the bulls overtook the action to jump start the reversal. It eventually fought through the S1 Pivot, then all three major SMAs before arresting just above the 200 SMA with a double top.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 02.09.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Feb 092012

2/9/2011 Quarterly RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0724
1st Peak @ 1.0705 – 1432 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0703 – 1442 (12 min)

Reverse to 1.0723 – 1500 (30 min)
20 ticks

Notes: With the larger SMAs trending downward and not in the way of the downward spike, I would remain in this trade for the 2nd peak. After seeing the 1443 -1444 candles reverse, I would close out around 1.0707 on the 1444 candle.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 11.03.11

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Nov 032011

11/3/2011 Quarterly RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0266
1st Peak @ 1.0257 – 1431 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reverse to 1.0272 – 1442 (12 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Since the first candle crossed the 100 SMA downward about halfway down and could not cross the 200 SMA, I would expect close out at the 200. It also hovered at the 200 toward the end of the 1431 candle. After a small 15 tick reversal, it dropped substantially for 41 ticks, but that would not be predictable.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 08.04.11

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Aug 042011

8/4/2011 Quarterly RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0190
1st Peak @ 1.0161 – 1531 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reverse to 1.0222 – 1553 (2 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Since the first candle crossed the 200 SMA downward about 2/3 of the way down and the 100 / 50 SMAs higher up, I would expect a pullback and close out at the end of the 1531 candle. The strong reversal, and the delay of 15 min before it cleared the 50 /100 SMAs upward is not predictable.

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 05.05.11

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 052011

5/5/2011 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0253
1st Peak @ 1.0276 – 1532 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0326 – 1604 (34 min)
73 ticks

Reverse to 1.0301 – 1613 (43 min)
25 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Upward FAN already in progress prior to report release. With the FAN and the initial spike going with the grain but not excessively, I would stay in and watch it progress. Notice no candle crossed the 13, and very few had tails that touched it. I would have stayed in until 1611 when the market crossed the 20.

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