6B 12-15 (1 Min) 9.16.2015

 Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change  Comments Off on 6B 12-15 (1 Min) 9.16.2015
Jan 042016
 

6B 12-15 (1 Min) 9_16_2015

9/16/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.5%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.9%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 2.6%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -5.1K
Claimant Count Change Actual: 1.2K
Previous Revision: -1.9K to -6.8K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (SLIPPED – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.5338
1st Peak @ 1.5382 – 0430:01 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 1.5373 – 0433 (3 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5412 – 0449 (19 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 1.5385 – 0503 (33 min)
27 ticks

Double Top @ 1.5414 – 0518 (48 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a (slipped)
Slippage: excessive
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Quick and large spike with a gap at the open. It still retraced back to 1.5360 in 6 sec to allow for a quick buy if you were savvy. Otherwise, note the reluctance to reverse as an opportunity for a 2nd peak trade.

6B 12-15 (1 Min) 10.14.2015

 Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change  Comments Off on 6B 12-15 (1 Min) 10.14.2015
Jan 052016
 

6B 12-15 (1 Min) 10_14_2015

10/14/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 3.1%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -2.3K
Claimant Count Change Actual: 4.6K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5299
1st Peak @ 1.5277 – 0431:58 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.5322 – 0443 (13 min)
45 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.5362 – 0500 (30 min)
85 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.5289 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.5278 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5255 (above the R1 Mid Pivot) – move up to the R2 Mid Pivot

Notes: Choppy reaction initially, but the settings would have gotten the correct fill and ridden the heat to allow up to a modest 11 ticks to be captured.

6B 12-15 (1 Min) 11.11.2015

 Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change  Comments Off on 6B 12-15 (1 Min) 11.11.2015
Jan 052016
 

6B 12-15 (1 Min) 11_11_2015

11/11/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 3.2%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: 1.6K
Claimant Count Change Actual: 3.3K
Previous Revision: -4.1K to 0.5K
SPIKE / REVERSE (SLIPPED – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.5170
1st Peak @ 1.5123 – 0430:00 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 1.5148 – 0430:49 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1.5129 – 0434 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.5149 – 0446 (16 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a (slipped)
Slippage: excessive
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: No fill as slippage exceeded the settings. Note the strong support of the R2 Mid Pivot and look to reverse trade there on more than one occasion

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015

 Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015
Jan 052016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 12_16_2015

12/16/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.5%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: 0.9K
Claimant Count Change Actual: 3.9K
Previous Revision: -3.1K to 0.2K
INDECISIVE (ERROR ON SETUP – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.5010
Whipsaw between 1.4985 and 1.5012 – 0430:03 (1 min)
27 ticks span

Expected Fill: n/a (error)
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: No fill as the whipsaw started at 0429:59 and the setup of the bracket would have seen errors with the large movement. Cancel any orders (if applicable) or look to exit immediately with near Breakeven results.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1.20.16

 Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1.20.16
Jan 252016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1_20_2016

1/20/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.1%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: 4.1K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -4.3K
Previous Revision: -6.1K to -2.2K
INDECISIVE (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.5142
Whipsaw between 1.4131 and 1.4161 – 0430:07 (1 min)
30 ticks span

Reversal to 1.4137 – 0439 (9 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4191 – 0501 (31 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 1.4173 – 0517 (47 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a (cancel)
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the orders before the strategy deploys due to excessive premature movement at 4:29:51 (9 sec before the report release). After a small reversal it climbed for a large 2nd peak as it crossed the PP Pivot.