5/15/2013 BOE Inflation Report (0530 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5242
1st Peak @ 1.5212 – 0530:10 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1.5270 – 0535:11 (6 min)
58 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5199 – 0624 (54 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.5226 – 0630 (60 min)
27 ticks

Notes: The Bank of England left policy unchanged, projecting small and stable, but weak growth. This caused a shortly sustained short spike of 30 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot, and the OOD, peaking 8-10 sec after the spike started in the :31 bar. Since this report often reverses strongly, we advise exiting and/or reversing the trade after 6-8 sec of the initial move starting. It reversed for a total of 58 ticks in the next 5 min, crossing all3 major SMAs and eventually reaching the R1 Pivot. Trail the stop a few ticks below each pivot until breached with a target of about 50 ticks (just less than 2x the 1st peak). After the reversal, it oscillated down then up before falling for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in a failed effort to reach the S1 Pivot.

11/13/2013 BOE Inflation Report (0530 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5919
1st Peak @ 1.6002 – 0530:07 (1 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 1.5934 – 0604 (34 min)
68 ticks

Pullback to 1.5954 – 0607 (37 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The Bank of England left policy unchanged, and offered a much rosier projection of the economy and improvement in labor. This caused a large long spike of 83 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD, as it peaked 7 sec into the :31 bar at the psychological level of 1.6000. Since this report often reverses strongly, we advise exiting and/or reversing the trade after 6-8 sec of the initial move starting. It reversed for a total of 68 ticks in the next 33 min, crossing the 50 SMA, the R1 Mid Pivot, and reaching the 100 SMA. This is the only occasion that the reversal has not exceeded the initial spike, but still saw a healthy yield with a large 1st peak. With the initial spike being very large, it would be wise to look to exit the reversal when it first encounters the 50 SMA/R1 Mid Pivot. If you continue to hold a position, trail the stop a few ticks above the 13 or 20 SMA and keep riding the move until the MACD crosses or the first bar settles below the 20. This would have surrendered about 10 ticks in comparison to an exit on the R1 Mid Pivot.

5/14/2014 BOE Inflation Report (0530 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6814
1st Peak @ 1.6790 – 0530:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.6819 – 0530:04 (4 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 1.6753 – 0531:24 (2 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 1.6808 – 0601 (31 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 1.6770 – 0622 (52 min)
38 ticks

Notes: The Bank of England left policy unchanged, and was satisfied with economic indicators and the target inflation of near 2.0% being close. This caused an initial whipsaw, that turned into a large short move. The framework of the reaction differed from the last 2 yrs with the reversal being immediate, then a change of direction again to the origin heading. It fell to the S2 Pivot for 24 ticks, the reversed to the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA before settling down to trickle lower for a total of 66 ticks in the middle of the :32 bar. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1.6800 with about 8 ticks of slippage, then the 20 tick stop would have absorbed the retracement with 1 tick to spare and allowed profit to be captured later. Since the behavior deviated, it would be wise to exit with any amount of profit on the board, or tighten the stop to mitigate the loss in case of a change of direction. In the first 20 sec, it could not fall below the 1.6790 area as it chopped between the S1 and S2 Pivots. An exit in this are for about 5 ticks max was available. If you were patient and rode the latter move downward, up to 45 ticks could have been captured. After that it revered for 55 ticks in 29 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back for 38 ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot after another21 min.

11/12/2014 BOE Inflation Report (0530 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.5934
1st Peak @ 1.5893 – 0530:06 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.5935 – 0530:15 (1 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5888 – 0532 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.5915 – 0534 (4 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5807 – 0710 (100 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 1.5833 – 0740 (130 min)
26 ticks

Notes: The Bank of England report came across mostly dovish as expectations for inflation to be less than 1% with modest sustained growth. This caused an initial short move that had some early noise at 0530:04 that would have provided a favorable fill short at 1.5927 with only 1 tick of slippage. It continued to fall for 41 ticks after 6 sec. Follow the HIRA guidance and reverse the order at 6-8 sec which would have correlated to the PP Pivot at 1.5903 to capture about 25 ticks. It reversed 42 ticks back to the origin in the next 7 sec and presented to quick opportunities to exit with another 25 ticks. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks on the :32 bar before reversing 27 ticks in the next 2 min to the OOD. Then it settled into a downward fan, falling another 81 ticks below the 2nd peak in the next 2 hrs to the S2 Pivot. After that it reversed 26 ticks to the 50 SMA and traded sideways near the S2 Pivot.

5/13/2015 BOE Inflation Report (0530 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.5727
1st Peak @ 1.5693 – 0530:00 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.5736 – 0530:02 (1 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5653 – 0502 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 1.5717 – 0536 (6 min)
64 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5630 – 0607 (37 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 1.5671 – 0625 (55 min)
41 ticks

Notes: The Bank of England maintained an outlook for growth in the next year as 2014 was strong even with the weak 2015 Q1 data. This caused an indecisive initial reaction that saw a whipsaw of 40+ ticks in 2 sec and continued to chop around until 16 sec when it fell decisively to the peak of 74 ticks. This broke decisively from the trend of the last 2-3 yrs as it was not stable initially. With JOBB and a 6 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 1.5715 with 6 ticks of slippage then the stop would have been taken at 1.5735 for a 20 tick loss with no slippage. After the peak reached the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot, it reversed 64 ticks in 4 min to the 100/20 SMAs. Then it fell for a final peak of 23 more ticks in 31 min before reversing 41 ticks in 18 min to the OOD.