6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.12.2016

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May 052016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_12_2016

4/12/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 2.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.4281
1st Peak @ 1.4323 – 0430:00 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.4288 – 0430:02 (1 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1.4315 – 0434 (4 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4286 – 0438 (8 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Trigger to cancel as a 20 tick short spike and reverse happened 10 sec before the report. Then we saw a 42 tick immediate spike that promptly collapsed. If traded the slippage would have probably exceeded 10 ticks and then put you in the red if not stopped. After that it trickled higher in 3 min before reversing to the 20 SMA. Then it continued to cycle.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

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Apr 102016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.4%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -1.1%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.3%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4284
1st Peak @ 1.4257 – 0530:00 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4314 – 0546 (16 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 1.4271 – 0619 (49 min)
43 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4272 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4259 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4255 (just below the LOD) – move higher to about 1.4260 after hovering

Notes: Nice short spike that hit the LOD then pulled away a bit and hovered near the low for 30 sec before reversing. This would have allowed 10-13 ticks to be captured easily with or without a profit target. Since the market had crossed the S4 Mid Pivot in a big selloff earlier, the LOD was likely solid. Then it reversed strongly in the next 15 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot before pulling back.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016

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Mar 062016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_16_2016

2/16/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -1.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to -0.3%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4488
1st Peak @ 1.4462 – 0430:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.4482 – 0430:29 (1 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4505 – 0434 (4 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4445 – 0505 (35 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.4469 – 0534 (64 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4479 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4465 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4462 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move higher to above the Pivot after hovering

Notes: Relatively small spike due to the match on CPI and the support of the R1 / R1 Mid Pivots and 100 SMA. It stabbed at the R1 Mid Pivot twice in the first 4 sec, then retreated to hover above the Pivot. Look to exit around 1.4468. Nice strong reversal for 43 ticks in 4 min before a delayed 2nd peak push to the PP Pivot.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 8.13.2013

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Apr 142014
 

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 8_13_2013

8/13/2013 Monthly CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.8%
CPI y/y Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 1.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 3.1%
RPI y/y Actual: 3.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5434
Premature spike @ 1.5420 – 0430:00 (1 min)
-14 ticks

1st Peak @ 1.5462 – 0431 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.5451 – 0432 (2 min)
11 ticks

Final peak @ 1.5487 – 0516 (46 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 1.5440 – 0624 (114 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Matching report across the board caused an early short move of 14 ticks that hit the S3 Mid Pivot, then reversed for the true move (42 ticks from the low and 28 ticks from the origin. It peaked on the 100/200 SMAs and OOD, then reversed for 11 ticks early on the :32 bar. After that it stepped higher 3 times with reversals in between. The period of the swings grew longer on each successive peak as the swings were about 20 ticks up and down. After the final peak was reached at 1.5487 on the R1 Pivot, it reversed for 47 ticks in the next 68 min, almost back to the S2 Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 9.17.2013

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Apr 142014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 9_17_2013

9/17/2013 Monthly CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.7%
CPI y/y Actual: 2.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.3%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 3.2%
RPI y/y Actual: 3.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5926
1st Peak @ 1.5897 – 0431 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.5911 – 0432 (2 min)
14 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.5882 – 0508 (38 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 1.5896 – 0517 (47 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in matching, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.5% and the RPI came in 0.1% better than the forecast. This caused a drop followed by a quick retracement due to the match and conflicting news, but eventually settled with the short move as the PPI report drove the reaction.  It started on the HOD, then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Then it struggled with the 200 SMA and PP Pivot for about 5 min before stepping lower for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD about 37 min later. Then it reversed for 14 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA. After that it traded mostly sideways below or on the S1 Mid Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.15.2013

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Apr 142014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10_15_2013

10/15/2013 Monthly CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.6%
CPI y/y Actual: 2.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.1%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -1.2%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -0.7%
RPI y/y Forecast: 3.2%
RPI y/y Actual: 3.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5981
1st Peak @ 1.6022 – 0431 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.5951 – 0502 (32 min)
71 ticks

ExtendedReversal to 1.5921 – 0529 (59 min)
101 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% above the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 1.1% with a sizeable downward revision to the previous report and the RPI came in matching. This caused a long and unsustainable spike of 41 ticks that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and fell 20 ticks immediately. This illustrates the lopsided influence of the CPI report over the PPI even when the offset on the PPI was much larger, but the pullback was due to the PPI. After the :31 bar, it traded sideways in a tame manner near the R1 Mid Pivot for about 10 min, before falling for 71 ticks in a little over 30 min to the S2 Mid Pivot, then another 30 ticks at the bottom of the hour to cross the S3 Mid Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.12.2013

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Apr 142014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11_12_2013

11/12/2013 Monthly CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.5%
CPI y/y Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.8%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -1.0%
RPI y/y Forecast: 3.0%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5905
1st Peak @ 1.5852 – 0431 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 1.5870 – 0432 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5850 – 0432 / 0446 (2/16 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 1.5881 – 0515 (45 min)
31 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.3% below the forecast, while the PPI input exceeded the forecast by 0.2% with a modest upward revision to the previous report and the RPI fell short of the forecast by 0.4%. This caused an expected safe sustained short reaction that started on the 13 SMA and fell to nearly reach the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks to nearly reach the S3 Pivot before falling for a 2 tick 2nd peak on the :32 and :46 bars. Then it reversed for 31 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the S3 Pivot. After that it traded sideways near the S3 Pivot.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 1.14.2014

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Apr 142014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 1_14_2014

1/14/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.1%
CPI y/y Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.7%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6438
1st Peak @ 1.6393 – 0431 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.6414 – 0435 (5 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6389 – 0439 / 0450 (9/20 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 1.6409 – 0501 (31 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% below the forecast, while the PPI input exceeded the forecast by 0.3%, and the RPI came in matching. This caused an expected safe short reaction that started after a recent rally near the HOD then fell for 45 ticks, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and the R1 Pivot. Then it pulled back and chopped between the R2 Mid Pivot and R1 Pivot. After the :31 bar, it reversed for 21 ticks on the :35 bar, then fell for a 2nd peak of another 4 ticks as it collided with the 200 SMA several times between :39 and :54. Then it reversed for 20 ticks back to the 50/100 SMAs on the :01 bar. After that, it continued to chop sideways for over an hour, between the 2nd peak low and the R1 Pivot.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.18.2014

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Apr 142014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2_18_2014

2/18/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 2.0%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.7%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6681
1st Peak @ 1.6655 – 0432 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.6688 – 0439 (9 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6652 – 0448 (18 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.6705 – 0548 (78 min)
53 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% below the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.5%, and the RPI exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused an expected safe short reaction that started on the 50 SMA then fell for 26 ticks, crossing the S2 Pivot and nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. After the :31 bar, it reversed for 33 ticks on the next 8 bars back to the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :18 bar to the S3 Mid Pivot. After that, it headed into a slow developing reversal for 53 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the PP Pivot.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 3.25.2014

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Apr 142014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 3_25_2014

3/25/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.7%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.6%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6481
1st Peak @ 1.6500 – 0532 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.6472 – 0541 (11 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1.6489 – 0600 (30 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.6480 – 0614 (44 min)
9 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in matching the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.8%, and the RPI exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a choppy initial reaction that settled into a long spike of 19 ticks, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the HOD halfway through the :32 bar. After that, due to the disappointing portion of the news, it reversed for 28 ticks on the next 9 bars back to S1 Mid Pivot. Then it climbed 17 ticks in the next 19 min, nearly reaching the PP Pivot, before reversing 9 ticks to the SMAs.

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