6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.15.2014

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May 052014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min)  4_15_2014

4/15/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.6%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.1%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.5%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.5%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.6659
1st Peak @ 1.6709 – 0432 (2 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.6700 – 0435 (5 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6717 – 0439 (9 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 1.6705 – 0451 (21 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in matching the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.5%, and the RPI matched the forecast%. We saw a premature short spike of 40 ticks at 57 -58 sec to trigger a cancel. However, if you had not cancelled with the :59 sec entry time, it would have been safe on the long spike after the bottom of the hour. It rebounded to the 100 SMA immediately, then slowly climbed another 20 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot about 17 sec into the :32 bar. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.6674 with about 9 ticks of slippage to barely fall in the threshold of the 10 tick limit order. Then it would have kept climbing slowly. The 200 SMA would have been a good target for about 23 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 9 ticksin 3 min, then rallied for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to reach the PP Pivot on the :39 bar. Then it fell for 12 ticks in the next 12 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 5.20.2014

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May 302014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min)  5_20_2014

5/20/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.7%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.0%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -0.4%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.6%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6851
1st Peak @ 1.6864 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.6839 – 0432 (2 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6814 – 0440 (10 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 1.6828 – 0445 (15 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% above the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 1.1%, and the RPI narrowly missed the forecast by 0.1%. We saw a large but slow long move on the :00 bar, but it still would have presented a safe setup and entry. It only rose 13 ticks on the conflicting news as the CPI results drove the initial reaction to cross the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD, then it reversed later in the bar and continued to fall in the next several bars as the PPI and RPI influence took over. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.6859 with about 2 ticks of slippage then you would have seen it hover between 58 and 64 for about 7 sec. Given the behavior of the 6B and the nature of this report, look to exit after observing the hovering with about 2-3 ticks before the reversal took over. It fell 25 ticks to cross the R2 Mid Pivot and 13/20 SMAs in the next minute. After 3 min of hovering, it continued to fall for an extended reversal of 25 more ticks to cross all 3 Major SMAs and the PP Pivot in about 4 min. Then it pulled back for 14 ticks in 5 min to the R1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 6.17.2014

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Jul 052014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  6_17_2014

6/17/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.7%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.1%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -0.9%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.5%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6965
1st Peak @ 1.6925 – 0432 (2 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.6950 – 0508 (38 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6977 – 0616 (106 min)
52 tick

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.2% below the forecast, the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 1.0%, and the RPI narrowly missed the forecast by 0.1% to be consistently bearish. We saw a large immediate short spike of about 37 ticks that crossed the LOD and S2 Pivot, then hovered in between the low and the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would not have filled due to excessive slippage on the large move. It also did not retrace to give us a secondary opportunity for an entry. So due to the situation and nature of the 6B with thin volume, we are left watching the large move. A reversal trade is potentially risky here too as it could seek a 2nd peak. After peaking late in the :32 bar, it reversed 19 ticks in 5 min to reach the 13 SMA, then another 6 ticks in the next 30 min as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the S1 Pivot. The extended reversal claimed another 27 ticks in the next 70 min as it reached the R1 Mid Pivot Notice how it pulled back for about 11 ticks after hitting the 13 SMA. That would have been a good short opportunity.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 7.15.2014

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Jul 272014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  7_15_2014

7/15/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.6%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: +1.2% to 0.3%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.5%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.7077
1st Peak @ 1.7127 – 0431 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.7120 – 0432 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.7138 – 0437 (7 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1.7125 – 0503 (33 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.3% above the forecast, the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 1.0% with a strong bullish revision, and the RPI narrowly exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. All of this caused a collective bullish sentiment. We saw a large immediate long spike of about 50 ticks that crossed the R2 Pivot, then backed off a bit to just above the R2 Mid Pivot before pulling back up. With JOBB, your long order would not have filled due to excessive slippage on the large move. It also did not retrace to give us a secondary opportunity for an entry. So due to the situation and nature of the 6B with thin volume, we are left watching the large move, but the strong report leaves us to look for long entries on reversals. If you were quick enough, buy at about 1.7112 where it hovered for 8 sec would have been ideal, but anywhere under the R2 Pivot would be ok. Then target the R3 Mid Pivot for at least 20 ticks. A reversal trade is risky here too as it most likely will seek a 2nd peak. After the small reversal on the :32 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 5 min to reach the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for only 13 ticks after a double top as it only crossed the 13/20 SMAs after another 26 min. Then it mostly traded sideways in between the R2 and R3 Mid Pivots.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 8.19.2014

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Sep 012014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  8_19_2014

8/19/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.8%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -1.0%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -1.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.9%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.6%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (SLIPPED – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.6684
1st Peak @ 1.6637 – 0431 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 1.6655 – 0432 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6631 – 0434 (4 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 1.6651 – 0440 (10 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.2% below the forecast, the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.6% with a small bearish revision, and the RPI narrowly fell short of the forecast by 0.1%. All of this caused strong bearish sentiment with the news all in line. We saw a large immediate short spike of 47 ticks that started just below the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S4 Pivot, then backed off. With JOBB, your short order would not have filled due to excessive slippage on the large move. It also did not retrace to give us a secondary opportunity for an entry. So due to the situation and nature of the 6B with thin volume, we are left watching the large move, but the strong report leaves us to look for short entries on reversals. As it recoiled back to the S4 Pivot, that presented a great short opportunity around 1.6655. Look for a target of a about 20 ticks as it will likely achieve a 2nd peak. Sure enough, it gained 6 more ticks on the :34 bar. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 6 min to nearly reach the 13 SMA. Then it traded sideways around 1.6645.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 9.16.2014

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Oct 072014
 

6B 12-14 (1 Min)  9_16_2014

9/16/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.5%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.1%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -1.7%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.5%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6156
1st Peak @ 1.6181 – 0430:04 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.6158 – 0433 (3 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.6150 – 0437 (7 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 1.6172 – 0510 (40 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in matching, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.7% with a small bearish revision, and the RPI narrowly fell short of the forecast by 0.1%. All of this caused a quick and shortly sustained long spike. It crossed the 50/100 SMAs and S3 Mid Pivot, then backed off. With JOBB, your long order would have at 1.6164 with 2 ticks of slippage then allowed an exit around 1.6175 where it hovered after backing off from the peak for 43 sec for 11 ticks. It trickled lower for a reversal of 23 ticks back to the origin area after 3 min. Then it continued lower for another 8 ticks to extend the LOD. After that it pulled back 22 ticks in 33 min as it crossed the 50/100 SMAs.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 10.14.2014

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Nov 032014
 

6B 12-14 (1 Min)  10_14_2014

10/14/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -1.2%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.3%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6008
1st Peak @ 1.5967 – 0430:00 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.5985 – 0432 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5950 – 0442 (12 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 1.5971 – 0454 (24 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5944 – 0502 (32 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.5965 – 0506 (36 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.2% off the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.2% with a moderate bearish revision, and the RPI matched the forecast. All of this caused a quick sizeable short spike. It crossed the S3 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the S3 Pivot for 41 ticks, then oscillated between the low and the S3 Mid Pivot for 3 min before settling lower then heading for a 2nd peak. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.5993 with 9 ticks of slippage. Since it chopped near the low point for about 5 sec after the initial burst, either exit there or set a target a few ticks above the low and exit with about 20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed to the S3 Mid Pivot on the next bar for 18 ticks, then fell for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks in the next 12 min. After that it reversed 21 ticks to the 13/20 SMAs in 12 min, then fell for a final peak of 6 more ticks. Then it reversed to the S3 Pivot for 21 ticks and traded sideways.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 11.18.2014

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Dec 272014
 

6B 12-14 (1 Min)  11_18_2014

11/14/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.2%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -1.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -1.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.3%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5646
1st Peak @ 1.5667 – 0430:03 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.5643 – 0430:14 (1 min)
24 ticks

Pullback to 1.5665 – 0433 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.5635 – 0508 (38 min)
30 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% above the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, and the RPI matched the forecast. All of this caused a quick long spike for 21 ticks that was shortly sustained. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot then started to retreat after 4 sec to the origin after another 10 sec. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.5657 with 5 ticks of slippage then shown only 10 ticks initially before dipping in the red. On the pullback, it would have allowed an exit for a few ticks as the :31 bar expired just above the R1 Pivot and more later as the :33 bar climbed. It continued to climb just short of the 1st peak on the :33 bar, then reversed 30 ticks in the next 35 min to the PP Pivot.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 1.13.2015

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Jan 262015
 

6B 03-15 (1 Min)  1_13_2015

1/13/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.7%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -2.5%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -2.4%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -0.7%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.7%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5110
1st Peak @ 1.5076 – 0431:01 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.5097 – 0433 (3 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5070 – 0441 (11 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.5103 – 0500 (30 min)
33 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.2% off the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with a moderate bullish revision, and the RPI fell short of the forecast by 0.1%. All of this caused a quick sizeable short spike. It started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot for 34 ticks, then chop between 1.5079 and 1.5093. Then it drifted lower to the peak at 1.5076 as the :02 bar was starting. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.5096 with 8 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 1.5080 when it hovered late in the :01 bar for 16 ticks. After that it reversed 21 ticks in 2 min to the S2 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 8 min. Then it reversed 33 ticks in 19 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 2.17.2015

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Mar 172015
 

6B 03-15 (1 Min)  2_17_2015

2/17/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -2.5%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -3.7%
Previous Revision: -0.9% to -3.3%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.2%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5331
1st Peak @ 1.5355 – 0430:45 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.5340 – 0432 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5377 – 0440 (10 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.5355 – 0501 (31 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5395 – 0522 (52 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.5381 – 0549 (79 min)
14 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in matching the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 1.2% with a moderate bearish revision, and the RPI fell short of the forecast by 0.1%. All of this caused a quick, but choppy long spike. The setup was a little hairy and may have been a tripwire for you to cancel, but it would have been safe for profit. It started just above the S2 Mid Pivot after a dramatic drop on the :30 bar. Then it climbed to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot and reach the OOD for 24 ticks in 45 sec. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.5340 with 3 ticks of slippage. It was very choppy in the first 12 sec due to the matching CPI, but settled down after that to climb and hover around 1.5352 to allow an exit with 12 ticks. After that it reversed 21 ticks in the next min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 8 min as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot and nearly reached the LOD. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 21 min to the 100 SMA / OOD before climbing for a final peak of 18 more ticks in 21 min after eclipsing the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks to the 50 SMA and traded sideways around the R2 Mid Pivot.