4/15/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 1.6%
CPI y/y Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.1%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.5%
RPI y/y Forecast: 2.5%
RPI y/y Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.6659
1st Peak @ 1.6709 – 0432 (2 min)
50 ticks
Reversal to 1.6700 – 0435 (5 min)
9 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.6717 – 0439 (9 min)
58 ticks
Reversal to 1.6705 – 0451 (21 min)
12 ticks
Notes: The CPI report came in matching the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.5%, and the RPI matched the forecast%. We saw a premature short spike of 40 ticks at 57 -58 sec to trigger a cancel. However, if you had not cancelled with the :59 sec entry time, it would have been safe on the long spike after the bottom of the hour. It rebounded to the 100 SMA immediately, then slowly climbed another 20 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot about 17 sec into the :32 bar. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.6674 with about 9 ticks of slippage to barely fall in the threshold of the 10 tick limit order. Then it would have kept climbing slowly. The 200 SMA would have been a good target for about 23 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 9 ticksin 3 min, then rallied for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to reach the PP Pivot on the :39 bar. Then it fell for 12 ticks in the next 12 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.