3/24/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0530 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.1%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 1.6%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -3.6%
RPI y/y Forecast: 0.9%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4939
1st Peak @ 1.4909 – 0530:02 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1.4940 – 0531:06 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4887 – 0549 (19 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.4939 – 0601 (31 min)
52 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% below the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 1.4% with a modest bullish revision, and the RPI exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. All of this caused a quick short spike of 30 ticks that was shortly sustained. It started just above the 20 SMA and fell to cross the 200 SMA and PP Pivot then touch the LOD. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.4926 with 7 ticks of slippage. Then it fell and chopped between the PP Pivot and LOD for about 18 sec to allow an exit between 6 and 13 ticks. After the hovering, it reversed 31 ticks back to the origin at the beginning of the :32 bar. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 22 ticks to the S1 Pivot in 17 min before reversing 52 ticks in 12 min to the 100 SMA.

5/19/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.0%
CPI y/y Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.8%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
RPI y/y Forecast: 0.9%
RPI y/y Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5570
1st Peak @ 1.5530 – 0430:47 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.5545 – 0432 (2 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5526 – 0436 (6 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 1.5560 – 0444 (14 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The CPI report came in 0.1% below the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.4% with a modest bullish revision, and the RPI matched the forecast. All of this caused a short spike of 40 ticks that fell 26 ticks immediately, then another 14 ticks as of 47 sec to reach the S3 Pivot. With JOBB and a 6 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 1.5558 with 6 ticks of slippage. Then it would have hovered initially at about 1.5545 to allow up to 13 ticks to be captured or another 13 ticks with patience on the S3 Pivot. After that it reversed 15 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 34 ticks in 8 min.

7/14/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.0%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -0.7%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -1.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -1.1%
RPI y/y Forecast: 0.9%
RPI y/y Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5468
1st Peak @ 1.5445 – 0430:00 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.5475 – 0433 (3 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 1.5451 – 0452 (22 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.5489 – 0509 (39 min)
38 ticks

Notes: The CPI report matched the forecast, while the PPI input fell short of the forecast by 0.6% with a modest bearish revision, and the RPI fell short of the forecast by 0.1%. We saw a short spike of 23 ticks after 1 sec that crossed the S1 Pivot and nearly reached the LOD. Then it backed off and hovered just above the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 6 tick bracket your short entry would have filled at about 1.5458 with 4 ticks of slippage. A profit target of 12 ticks or less would have filled. Otherwise, look to exit after the hovering at about 1.5453 with 5 ticks. It continued to reverse to 1.5475 after 2 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 24 ticks in 19 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 17 min to extend the LOD.

9/15/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EDT)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.0%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -2.3%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -2.4%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -1.2%
RPI y/y Forecast: 0.9%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5427
1st Peak @ 1.5451 – 0431:19 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.5425 – 0440 (10 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.5433 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.5450 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5450 (above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Slow developing spike made for a low slippage fill. It paused briefly at the HOD before ascending to the R1 Pivot. Nice reversal back to the origin in 8 min.

11/17/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: -0.1%
CPI y/y Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: 0.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.5%
RPI y/y Forecast: 0.9%
RPI y/y Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5169
1st Peak @ 1.5196 – 0430:00 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.5177 – 0432 (2 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5214 – 0503 (33 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.5197 – 0511 (41 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.5180 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.5194 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5200 (in between the PP Pivot and HOD) – move lower

Notes: Quick spike that retreated, then slowly climbed back to the same spot. Move the target to just below the OOD to exit with up to 14 ticks. Nice 2nd peak used the 13 SMA as support.