6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9.16.2015

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Jan 102016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 9_16_2015

9/16/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008301
1st Peak @ 0.008333 – 0830:01 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.008301 – 0830:20 (1 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 0.008319 – 0837 (7 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008306 – 0855 (25 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008310 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008313 – 3 ticks (likely exit 3-5 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008319 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Another whipsaw after last month. This time it allowed an exit around breakeven, the quicker the better as it trickled short between 2 and 20 sec after the report.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1.19.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1.19.2016
Jan 252016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1_19_2016

1/19/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.1%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -1.4%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.0%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4318
1st Peak @ 1.4341 – 0430:49 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.4320 – 0436 (6 min)
21 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4302 – 0454 (24 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 1.4320 – 0510 (40 min)
27 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4327 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4340 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4350 (just above the R3 Pivot) – move lower to 1.4338 area after the initial move peaked there

Notes: Relatively small spike due to the overbought sentiment and push on the HOD. Look to exit around 1.4338 – 1.4340 after 3 attempts to go higher failed. Nice strong reversal for 39 ticks to correct the overall long trend.