4/1/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 51.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4363
1st Peak @ 1.4348 – 0431:45 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.4360 – 0434 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4314 – 0452 (22 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 1.4335 – 0458 (28 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4359 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4349 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4344 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Small and slow moving short spike due to a narrow offset. This would have seen a no slippage fill and easy exit with up to 10 ticks. After a reversal it settled into a short trend for a large 2nd peak of 34 more ticks to the S2 Pivot.

8/1/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 52.8
Actual: 54.6
Previous revision: +0.4 to 52.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.5163 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.5206 – 0429 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.5174 – 0440 (12 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 1.5202 – 0449 (20 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.5190 – 0455 (27 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.8 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 43 ticks that started on the S1 Pivot and crossed the OOD/HOD and PP Pivot. It hovered between 1.5195 and 1.5206 for the first 11 sec allowing for an easy exit near 1.5200. After the :29 bar, it reversed for 32 ticks back to the 20 SMA on the :40 bar, then rebounded in a failed attempt for a 2nd peak for 28 ticks (4 ticks lower than the 1st peak). This would have been a good opportunity to buy the reversal as it dipped to hit the 13 or 20 SMA, then look to exit with 20 ticks. It continued to oscillate between 1.5190 and the PP Pivot until it finally broke out long about an hour after the report. This is unlikely due to the PMI report, but some other impulse news since it was a 15 tick bar and too much time elapsed since the report.

10/1/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.5
Actual: 56.7
Previous revision: -0.1 to 57.1
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.6228 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6200 – 0429 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.6228 – 0431 (3 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1.6215 – 0432 (4 min)
13 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6248 – 0522 (54 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 0.8 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 28 ticks that started below the 200/50 SMAs, then broke out to cross the R1 Pivot. Look to exit quickly as the offset is less than 1 pt and the reaction is smaller than normal. An exit within the first 5 sec would have secured an exit no worse than 1.6206, just below the R1 Pivot. After the peak, it reversed later in the :29 bar, leaving 19 ticks on the tail naked. Then it climbed another 9 ticks in the next 2 bars to the 13 SMA and the origin. Then it pulled back for 13 ticks on the next bar and continued to chop sideways around the R2 Mid Pivot, before eventually breaking out long for another 20 ticks on an extended reversal 54 min after the report.

12/2/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 58.4
Previous revision: +0.5 to 56.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.6379 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6425 – 0429 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.6408 – 0432 (4 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.6422 – 0436 (8 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.6400 – 0446 (18 min)
22 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6386 – 0540 (72 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.9 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 46 ticks that started at the bottom of recent downtrend , then broke out to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. An exit within the first 5 sec would have secured an exit no worse than 1.6418, just below the R2 Pivot. After the peak, it reversed back to the 200 SMA on the :32 bar for 17 ticks. Then it climbed 14 ticks in the next 4 bars in a failed attempt at a 2nd peal to nearly reach the R2 Pivot. Then we saw a dramatic reversal on the :37 bar that eventually achieved 22 ticks after the :46 bar nearly reached the 50 SMA. After that, it chopped sideways near the R2 Mid Pivot before falling for an extended reversal of 26 more ticks.

3/3/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 56.9
Actual: 56.9
Previous revision: -0.1 to 56.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6708 (0428)
1st Peak @ 1.6718 – 0429 (1 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.6750 – 0437 (9 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6727 – 0515 (47 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast but still caused a long reaction. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks that started on the 20 SMA, then broke out to cross the 100/50 SMAs, and the S1 Pivot. In this case an exit at 5 sec would have seen an exit near 1.6717 which would have been wise with the matching results, but it surprisingly continued upward to achieve 42 ticks in the next 8 min. This reaction differed from the others as it was strongly bullish on matching news with a 2nd peak to hit the HOD. Then it fell for 23 ticks to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot in the next 38 min.