6/2/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.1
Actual: 57.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6727
1st Peak @ 1.6749 – 0430:22 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.6726 – 0445 (15 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 1.6744 – 0509 (39 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast with 0.1 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks that started on the S2 Mid Pivot, then rose to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.6734 with only 2 ticks of slippage. Then it would have struggled briefly with the S1 Pivot and eventually rose to hover near the 200 SMA for over 30 sec.  A 10 tick profit target would have been prudent, but with the matching results and hovering, move the stop up to about breakeven. Then it would have given you up to 14 ticks on the push later in the bar. After the peak, it reversed back to the origin and S2 Mid Pivot in the next 14 min. When a report matches and delivers a healthy 1st peak, it is a normally a great reversal opportunity. Then it pulled back to the 100 SMA for 18 ticks in the next 24 min.

8/1/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.2
Actual: 55.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6865
1st Peak @ 1.6830 – 0430:00 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.6846 – 0436 (6 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6823 – 0454 (24 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6833- 0458 (28 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.8 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 35 ticks that started just below the 3 Major SMAs, then fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 1.6852 with 8 ticks of slippage. Then it hit thet S2 Pivot and retreated to settle around the 1.6838 level to allow an exit with about 14 ticks. After a reversal to the S2 Mid Pivot, it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 24 min. Then it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 4 min as it retreated to the S2 Pivot and 13/20 SMAs. After that it slowly trended lower but took more than an hour to extend the LOD.

10/1/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 52.6
Actual: 51.6
Previous revision: -0.3 to 52.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6187
1st Peak @ 1.6154 – 0431:09 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.6163 – 0433 (3 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6151 – 0435 (5 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.6173 – 0451 (21 min)
22 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.6199 – 0601 (91 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.0 pt offset. This caused a short spike of 33 ticks that started just above the S1 Mid Pivot, then fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled short at about 1.6174 with 8 ticks of slippage. Then it fell another 20 ticks to hover around the S2 Pivot into the :32 bar. As it kept falling, be patient and wait until it starts to hover. Look to exit at about 1.6155 for 19 ticks using the S2 Pivot as a target. After that it reversed 9 ticks in the next bar before falling for a minor 2nd peak of only 3 more ticks 2 min later. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in the next 16 min and another 26 ticks in the next 70 min to the PP Pivot.

12/1/2014 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: +0.1 to 53.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5679
1st Peak @ 1.5689 – 0430:00 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.5675 – 0432 (2 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.5685 – 0436 (6 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.5664 – 0448 (18 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly stronger than the forecast with 0.4 pts offset. This caused a small and shortly sustained long spike of 10 ticks that started just above the R1 Pivot, then rose to touch the HOD and retreat. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled long at about 1.5686 with 2 ticks of slippage. It peaked immediately, then retraced 6 ticks and rose again a few sec later. The time spent above the fill was short, so the best play would be to exit about 2-3 ticks in the red where it hovered later in the bar prior to the impending reversal. The spike was likely contained due to the small offset and overbought condition of the market as a healthy rally was underway for about 90 min with built up divergence. After the peak, it reversed 14 ticks in 1 min to the 20 SMA before pulling back for 10 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot.

3/2/2015 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 53.5
Actual: 54.1
Previous revision: +0.1 to 53.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5405
1st Peak @ 1.5418 – 0430:47 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.5406 – 0439 (9 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5420 – 0445 (15 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.5410 – 0451 (21 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 0.6 pts offset. This caused a small long spike of 13 ticks that started just above the rising 13 SMA, then rose to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.5410 with no slippage. It trickled upward and then hovered just above the S1 Mid Pivot for over a minute to allow an exit at 1.5415 with 5 ticks. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks. Then it reversed 10 ticks and traded sideways.