4/1/2015 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 54.5
Actual: 54.4
Previous revision: -0.1 to 54.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.4818
1st Peak @ 1.4810 – 0430:00 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 1.4821 – 0430:01 (1 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4834 – 0433 (3 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast to cause an indecisive reaction. It started just above the OOD then fell to the LOD 8 ticks before immediately reversing 11 ticks to the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 1.4811 with 2 ticks of slippage then seen it reverse and stall at about 10 ticks of heat. With the results matching and the initial indecision, exit there. After that it continued to reverse for 13 more ticks in the next 2 min then it fell dramatically for over 90 ticks in the next 19 min, but unlikely due to this report.

6/1/2015 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 52.7
Actual: 52.0
Previous revision: -0.1 to 51.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5266
1st Peak @ 1.5237 – 0432:52 (3 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5222 – 0439 (9 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 1.5242 – 0455 (25 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5202 – 0527 (57 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.5222 – 0554 (84 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse that the forecast with 0.7 pts offset to cause a large but slow developing short spike of 29 ticks in almost 3 min. It started on the 100 SMA then fell to cross the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot initially and then snagged another 13 ticks in the next 2 min. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 1.5261 with no slippage then seen it fall, retrace, and settle lower near the LOD as the :31 bar expired. Look for a safe exit at 1.5353 for about 8 ticks, or be patient and keep riding the wave for several min for up to 30 more ticks. It reached the 2nd peak after 6 min for 15 more ticks after crossing the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 20 ticks in 16 min. Then it fell for a final peak of 20 more ticks in 32 min after crossing the S2 Pivot before reversing 20 ticks in 27 min. Note that the 2nd Peak pivot was also the final reversal pivot at 1.5222.

8/3/2015 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 51.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.5612
1st Peak @ 1.5619 – 0430:00 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.5614 – 0430:19 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5624 – 0434 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.5607 – 0440 (10 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast with only 0.3 pts offset to cause a small long spike of 7 ticks immediately that backed off. With JOBB and a 5 ticks bracket, your long entry would have filled at 1.5617 with no slippage, then allowed an exit between 2 ticks loss and breakeven for 2 min after the release. After that it achieved a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 3 min to the OOD before reversing 17 ticks in 6 min to the LOD.

10/1/2015 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 51.3
Actual: 51.5
Previous revision: +0.1 to 51.6
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.5132
1st Peak @ 1.5145 – 0431:59 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.5131 – 0439 (9 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.5145 – 0441 (11 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5137 – 0443 (13 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.5136 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.5144 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5152 (above the R1 Mid Pivot) – move lower after initial reaction

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a small stable reaction but up to 8 ticks capturable with patience. It was aided by the uptrend and SMAs as support.

12/1/2015 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 53.7
Actual: 52.7
Previous revision: -0.3 to 55.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5101
1st Peak @ 1.5082 – 0430:03 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.5094 – 0430:47 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5078 – 0433 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.5092 – 0448 (18 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.5097 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.5083 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5080 (on the R1 Pivot) – move up slightly

Notes: Unstable initially, but the 12 stop would have contained the heat then allowed up to 14 ticks of profit after a few seconds.